Fact based stock research
Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO)

BMG0585R1060

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Assured Guaranty stock research in summary

assuredguaranty.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 45 (worse than 55% compared with investment alternatives), Assured Guaranty (Property & Casualty Insurance, Bermuda) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Assured Guaranty are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 13) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 98), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 45, is a hold recommendation based on Assured Guaranty's financial characteristics. As the company Assured Guaranty's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 37) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 13), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 98) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	37
Growth Rank	13
Safety Rank	98
Combined Rank	45

Country	Bermuda
Industry	Property & Casualty Insurance
Index
Size class	Large

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Assured Guaranty

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	43	35	25	37
GROWTH
GROWTH	58	25	31	13
SAFETY
SAFETY	9	98	98	98
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	11	25	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	3	10	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Assured Guaranty is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	43	35	25	37
GROWTH
GROWTH	58	25	31	13
SAFETY
SAFETY	9	98	98	98
COMBINED
COMBINED	31	45	45	45

Last update of combined financial performance: 6-Oct-2022. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Assured Guaranty the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% compared with alternatives), Assured Guaranty shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators where three out of four are below average for Assured Guaranty. Only the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) indicates good stock value with a Price-to-Book Rank of 73, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 73% of comparable investments. All other value indicators are below the market median. Price-to-Sales is 14 which means the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 86% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Assured Guaranty's revenue levels. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 73 and for the dividend yields rank which is lower than for 68% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 37, is a hold recommendation based on Assured Guaranty's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Why are market participants paying such a high price for Assured Guaranty, where three out of four value indicators are below par? One reason could be that the company is well financed, indicated by the high book capital level, and has a promising future that is not yet visible in reported revenues and profits. That would also explain the low dividend yield because the company needs the cash to invest in its future. If investors can verify a picture in this sense, the stock may still be a good investment, even though current company-reported financials don't fully explain current stock prices. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	11	19	3	14
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	36	21	19	24
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	94	86	69	73
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	46	28	22	32
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	43	35	25	37

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Assured Guaranty; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 13 (better than 13% compared with alternatives), Assured Guaranty shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Assured Guaranty. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 9, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 91% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 45, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 1. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 99% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 67, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 67% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 13, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Assured Guaranty, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	18	4	1	9
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	15	90	1
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	29	7	45
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	96	87	59	67
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	58	25	31	13

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Assured Guaranty.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with alternatives) for 2022, the company Assured Guaranty has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Assured Guaranty is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Assured Guaranty. Liquidity is at 55, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 55% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 10, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 90% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 45, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 55% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with alternatives), Assured Guaranty has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	13	74	48	45
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	17	10	10	10
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	29	60	60	55
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	9	98	98	98

Last update of Safety Rank: 6-Oct-2022. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Assured Guaranty and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	76	78	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	18	50	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	1	2	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	11	25	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Assured Guaranty.
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