Fact based stock research
Burford Capital (AIM:BUR)

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Burford Capital stock research in summary

burfordcapital.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 53 (better than 53% compared with investment alternatives), Burford Capital (Specialized Finance, Guernsey) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Burford Capital are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 59) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 51, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 53, is a buy recommendation based on Burford Capital's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Burford Capital exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 37), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 59). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 51) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	37
Growth Rank	59
Safety Rank	51
Combined Rank	53

Country	Guernsey
Industry	Specialized Finance
Index
Size class	Large

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Burford Capital

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	26	60	50	37
GROWTH
GROWTH	10	61	89	59
SAFETY
SAFETY	18	50	49	51
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	51	43	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	69	76	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Burford Capital is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	26	60	50	37
GROWTH
GROWTH	10	61	89	59
SAFETY
SAFETY	18	50	49	51
COMBINED
COMBINED	14	72	85	53

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Burford Capital the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% compared with alternatives), Burford Capital shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Burford Capital. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 64 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 64% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Burford Capital's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 57, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 57% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than for 64% of alternatives (only 36% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than for 86% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 37, is a hold recommendation based on Burford Capital's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high concerning expected revenues, the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting Group or BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than distribute it to shareholders through dividends, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	5	33	19	36
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	5	83	53	64
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	63	61	100	57
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	38	18	12	14
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	26	60	50	37

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Burford Capital; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with alternatives), Burford Capital shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Burford Capital. Sales Growth has a rank of 81 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 81% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 4% of competitors with a rank of 82. But Profit Growth only has a rank of 4, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 96% of its competitors. And Stock Returns have also been below average with a rank of only 39. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 59, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Profits are sometimes low if the company invests in the future. The positive revenue and capital investment outlook confirms such an interpretation. Both revenues and capital are solid growth indicators, and lower profits in such a case would be encouraging. But the investors see it differently by punishing the share price. Sometimes, Mister Market is not very reliable, because it is not uncommon for it to be volatile. Investors should look out for signs of growth expenditure that could justify low profit growth, and they may also find reasons why recent stock price developments don't confirm the growth outlook of operations. While operating growth indicators are not perfect, they are more reliable indicators for future performance than stock prices that can repeatedly surprise investors. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	2	31	1	81
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	31	98	4
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	93	84	82
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	64	51	97	39
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	10	61	89	59

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Burford Capital.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), the company Burford Capital has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Burford Capital is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Burford Capital and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 57, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 57% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 44, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 56% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 40, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 60% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), Burford Capital has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for Burford Capital are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Burford Capital and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	37	51	34	44
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	6	53	53	57
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	29	37	56	40
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	18	50	49	51

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Burford Capital and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	89	95	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	55	50	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	2	1	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	51	43	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Burford Capital.
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