Fact based stock research
Commerce Bancshares (NasdaqGS:CBSH)

US2005251036

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Commerce Bancshares stock research in summary

commercebank.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 28 (worse than 72% compared with investment alternatives), Commerce Bancshares (Regional Banks, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Commerce Bancshares are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 59) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 57, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 28, is a hold recommendation based on Commerce Bancshares's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Commerce Bancshares exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 1), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 59). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 57) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	1
Growth Rank	59
Safety Rank	57
Combined Rank	28

Country	USA
Industry	Regional Banks
Index	Employee Focus US, NASDAQ, D.J. US Banks, S&P MIDCAP
Size class	XX-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Commerce Bancshares

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	11	1	1	1
GROWTH
GROWTH	28	12	10	59
SAFETY
SAFETY	84	51	43	57
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	1	22	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	1	1	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Commerce Bancshares is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	11	1	1	1
GROWTH
GROWTH	28	12	10	59
SAFETY
SAFETY	84	51	43	57
COMBINED
COMBINED	45	4	1	28

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Commerce Bancshares the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with alternatives), Commerce Bancshares shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Commerce Bancshares. Price-to-Sales is 9 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 91% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Commerce Bancshares's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 3, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Commerce Bancshares. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 3 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 90% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation based on Commerce Bancshares's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Commerce Bancshares? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Commerce Bancshares? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Commerce Bancshares may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	15	3	7	9
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	28	3	7	3
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	8	3	1	3
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	31	11	12	10
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	11	1	1	1

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Commerce Bancshares; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with alternatives), Commerce Bancshares shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Commerce Bancshares. Profit Growth has a rank of 71 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 71% of its competitors. The same is valid for capital growth and stock returns. Capital Growth has a rank of 87, and Stock Returns has a rank of 59 which means that the stock returns have recently been above 59% of alternative investments. Only revenue growth is low with a Sales Growth has a rank of 10 (90% of its competitors are better). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 59, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The many positive growth indicators indicate a positive growth momentum with only low revenue growth. That can also be attributed to divestments or the sale of unprofitable businesses. If that is the reason, overall growth is well on track to making this stock attractive for growth investors. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	32	24	36	10
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	56	59	60	71
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	56	5	87
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	16	5	17	59
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	28	12	10	59

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Commerce Bancshares.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with alternatives), the company Commerce Bancshares has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Commerce Bancshares is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Commerce Bancshares. Liquidity is at 100, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 100% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 8, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 92% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 42, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 58% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with alternatives), Commerce Bancshares has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	49	24	28	42
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	57	18	4	8
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	87	100	100	100
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	84	51	43	57

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Commerce Bancshares and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	1	35	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	7	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	47	18	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	40	53	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	1	22	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Commerce Bancshares.
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