Fact based stock research
Freshpet (NasdaqGM:FRPT)
US3580391056
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Freshpet stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 31 (worse than 69% compared with investment alternatives), Freshpet (Packaged Foods & Meats, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Freshpet are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 3 (worse than 97% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 31, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 100). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 31, is a hold recommendation based on Freshpet's financial characteristics. As the company Freshpet shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 3 (97% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 100% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 100). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 31 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Freshpet, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Packaged Foods & Meats |
| Index | NASDAQ, S&P US Food & Beverage |
| Size class | Medium |
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Freshpet
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
|
9 |
|
16 |
|
3 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 60 |
|
7 |
|
89 |
|
100 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 21 |
|
86 |
|
60 |
|
31 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
52 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
21 |
|
62 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 31 (worse than 69% compared with investment alternatives), Freshpet (Packaged Foods & Meats, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Freshpet are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 3 (worse than 97% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 31, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 100). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 31, is a hold recommendation based on Freshpet's financial characteristics. As the company Freshpet shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 3 (97% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 100% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 100). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 31 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Freshpet, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
|
9 |
|
16 |
|
3 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 60 |
|
7 |
|
89 |
|
100 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 21 |
|
86 |
|
60 |
|
31 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 13 |
|
22 |
|
60 |
|
31 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 3 (worse than 97% compared with alternatives), Freshpet shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Freshpet. Price-to-Sales is 3 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 97% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Freshpet's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 25, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Freshpet. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 3 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 3, is a sell recommendation based on Freshpet's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Freshpet? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Freshpet? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Freshpet may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 5 |
|
5 |
|
7 |
|
3 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 15 |
|
8 |
|
26 |
|
3 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 20 |
|
22 |
|
25 |
|
25 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 1 |
|
9 |
|
16 |
|
3 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Freshpet shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for Freshpet. Sales Growth has a value of 98, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 98% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 94 and for Capital Growth with 93. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 95, which means they have been higher than 95% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 100, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, Freshpet exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 85 |
|
96 |
|
96 |
|
98 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 15 |
|
1 |
|
58 |
|
94 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
20 |
|
35 |
|
93 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 66 |
|
11 |
|
97 |
|
95 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 60 |
|
7 |
|
89 |
|
100 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 31 (better than 31% compared with alternatives), the company Freshpet has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Freshpet is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Freshpet and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 54 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 54% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 35, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 65% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 17, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 83% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 31 (worse than 69% compared with alternatives), Freshpet has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of Freshpet are on the safer side. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge and liquidity issues with Freshpet and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 76 |
|
100 |
|
100 |
|
54 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 36 |
|
33 |
|
46 |
|
35 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 5 |
|
81 |
|
12 |
|
17 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 21 |
|
86 |
|
60 |
|
31 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
81 |
|
83 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
75 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
8 |
|
6 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
40 |
|
55 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
52 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Freshpet from December 19, 2024.
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