Fact based stock research
Greggs (LSE:GRG)
GB00B63QSB39
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Greggs stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with investment alternatives), Greggs (Restaurants, United Kingdom) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Greggs are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 16 (worse than 84% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 59) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 86, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 57, is a buy recommendation based on Greggs's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Greggs exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 16), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 59). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 86) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | United Kingdom |
| Industry | Restaurants |
| Index | FTSE All Shares, FTSE 250, FTSE 350, Employee Focus EU |
| Size class | Large |
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Greggs
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
|
28 |
|
20 |
|
16 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 97 |
|
100 |
|
49 |
|
59 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 48 |
|
80 |
|
90 |
|
86 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
100 |
|
66 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
98 |
|
65 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with investment alternatives), Greggs (Restaurants, United Kingdom) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Greggs are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 16 (worse than 84% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 59) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 86, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 57, is a buy recommendation based on Greggs's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Greggs exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 16), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 59). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 86) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
|
28 |
|
20 |
|
16 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 97 |
|
100 |
|
49 |
|
59 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 48 |
|
80 |
|
90 |
|
86 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 44 |
|
90 |
|
63 |
|
57 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 16 (worse than 84% compared with alternatives), Greggs shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Greggs. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 50% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 36 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 64% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Greggs's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 19 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 81% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 20 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 80% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 16, is a sell recommendation based on Greggs's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Greggs? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Greggs only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 11 |
|
40 |
|
41 |
|
36 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 30 |
|
47 |
|
29 |
|
19 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 3 |
|
17 |
|
17 |
|
20 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 30 |
|
70 |
|
67 |
|
50 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 1 |
|
28 |
|
20 |
|
16 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with alternatives), Greggs shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Greggs. Sales Growth has a rank of 82 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 82% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 50, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 63, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 11, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 89% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 59, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 81 |
|
29 |
|
81 |
|
82 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 70 |
|
96 |
|
29 |
|
50 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
98 |
|
44 |
|
11 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 98 |
|
85 |
|
41 |
|
63 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 97 |
|
100 |
|
49 |
|
59 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 86 (better than 86% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Greggs has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Greggs is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Greggs. Leverage is at 69, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 69% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 58, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 58% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 85, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 85% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 86 (better than 86% compared with alternatives), Greggs has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. Investors may not have a debt issue with Greggs but they should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 62 |
|
67 |
|
67 |
|
69 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 18 |
|
59 |
|
59 |
|
58 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 80 |
|
70 |
|
94 |
|
85 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 48 |
|
80 |
|
90 |
|
86 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
66 |
|
51 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
83 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
100 |
|
69 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
74 |
|
54 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
100 |
|
66 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Greggs from December 19, 2024.
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