Fact based stock research
Grocery Outlet Holding (NasdaqGS:GO)

US39874R1014

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Grocery Outlet Holding stock research in summary

groceryoutlet.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 44 (worse than 56% compared with investment alternatives), Grocery Outlet Holding (Food Retail, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Grocery Outlet Holding are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 49) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 68), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 44, is a hold recommendation based on Grocery Outlet Holding's financial characteristics. As the company Grocery Outlet Holding's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 37) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 49), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 68) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	37
Growth Rank	49
Safety Rank	68
Combined Rank	44

Country	USA
Industry	Food Retail
Index	NASDAQ, S&P US Food & Beverage, S&P MIDCAP
Size class	X-Large

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Grocery Outlet Holding

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	10	13	16	37
GROWTH
GROWTH	12	29	55	49
SAFETY
SAFETY	8	67	59	68
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	46	24	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	22	18	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 28-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Grocery Outlet Holding is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	10	13	16	37
GROWTH
GROWTH	12	29	55	49
SAFETY
SAFETY	8	67	59	68
COMBINED
COMBINED	1	13	27	44

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Grocery Outlet Holding the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% compared with alternatives), Grocery Outlet Holding shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for Grocery Outlet Holding. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 63, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 63% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Grocery Outlet Holding's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio), which is more favorable than for 87% of alternatives (13% of peers have a higher ratio). But expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 are lower than average (dividends are expected to be lower than 99% of other stocks) while the Price to Profit ratio (or Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio) is higher than average with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 37, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 37, is a hold recommendation based on Grocery Outlet Holding's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Low profits and low dividends as seen here for Grocery Outlet Holding may indicate a restructuring phase. This could be transitory, making the company a good value when profits recover and dividends return to higher levels. If the stock price is compared with the size indicators for revenue and invested capital, it is on the lower side, making this stock a good value investment (apart from current profit and dividend expectations). We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	35	35	42	63
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	27	14	15	37
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	39	67	75	87
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	10	13	16	37

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Grocery Outlet Holding; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 49 (better than 49% compared with alternatives), Grocery Outlet Holding shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Grocery Outlet Holding. Sales Growth has a rank of 82 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 82% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 22% of competitors with a rank of 82. But Profit Growth only has a rank of 22, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 78% of its competitors. And Stock Returns have also been below average with a rank of only 23. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Profits are sometimes low if the company invests in the future. The positive revenue and capital investment outlook confirms such an interpretation. Both revenues and capital are solid growth indicators, and lower profits in such a case would be encouraging. But the investors see it differently by punishing the share price. Sometimes, Mister Market is not very reliable, because it is not uncommon for it to be volatile. Investors should look out for signs of growth expenditure that could justify low profit growth, and they may also find reasons why recent stock price developments don't confirm the growth outlook of operations. While operating growth indicators are not perfect, they are more reliable indicators for future performance than stock prices that can repeatedly surprise investors. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	29	84	90	82
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	12	36	22
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	59	52	82
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	8	21	29	23
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	12	29	55	49

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Grocery Outlet Holding.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 68 (better than 68% compared with alternatives), the company Grocery Outlet Holding has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Grocery Outlet Holding is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Grocery Outlet Holding. Leverage is at 72, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 72% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 54, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 54% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 55, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 55% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 68 (better than 68% compared with alternatives), Grocery Outlet Holding has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. Investors may not have a debt issue with Grocery Outlet Holding but they should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	31	64	73	72
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	37	52	52	54
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	12	60	40	55
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	8	67	59	68

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Grocery Outlet Holding and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	25	23	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	38	34	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	68	52	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	46	24	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Grocery Outlet Holding.
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