Fact based stock research
Groupon (NasdaqGS:GRPN)

US3994732069

How to read the free ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Groupon stock research in summary

groupon.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with investment alternatives), Groupon (Internet Retail, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Groupon are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 21 (worse than 79% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 19), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 12), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation based on Groupon's financial characteristics. As the company Groupon's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 21), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 19), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 12), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	21
Growth Rank	19
Safety Rank	12
Combined Rank	1

Country	USA
Industry	Internet Retail
Index	NASDAQ
Size class	Large

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Groupon

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	62	93	60	21
GROWTH
GROWTH	49	25	43	19
SAFETY
SAFETY	5	4	1	12
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	1	1	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	5	4	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Groupon is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	62	93	60	21
GROWTH
GROWTH	49	25	43	19
SAFETY
SAFETY	5	4	1	12
COMBINED
COMBINED	19	23	4	1

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Groupon the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 21 (worse than 79% compared with alternatives), Groupon shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where the majority of metrics are below, and only one is above average for Groupon. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 80, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than 80% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning to Groupon's revenue size. But all other performance indicators point in a different direction. Dividend yields have a Dividend Yield rank of 1, meaning that dividends are expected to be lower than for 99% of comparable investments. Furthermore, Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than 86% of alternatives (only 14% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E), which is higher than for 69% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 21, is a sell recommendation based on Groupon's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since Price-to-Sales is a stable value indicator even in challenging times, investing in Groupon could be seen as a value investment. However, there must be a good reason for the low market-to-book rank. If the company has a typical capital investment practice, the stock may be overvalued because the profit and dividend-related performance indicators are also low. The stock is only good value if investors can expect profits and dividends to pick up in the future. Else, Groupon looks like an expensive investment today. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	86	95	83	80
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	89	97	9	31
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	25	51	94	14
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	62	93	60	21

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Groupon; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 19 (better than 19% compared with alternatives), Groupon shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Groupon. Sales Growth has a rank of 50 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 50% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 59. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 3, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 97% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 6, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 19, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 59% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	11	5	6	50
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	33	87	69	6
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	13	34	3
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	63	37	75	59
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	49	25	43	19

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Groupon.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 12 (better than 12% compared with alternatives), the company Groupon has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Groupon is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Groupon. Liquidity is at 47, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 53% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 8, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 92% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 14 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 86% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 12 (worse than 88% compared with alternatives), Groupon has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Groupon because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	52	8	8	8
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	2	5	1	14
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	32	35	27	47
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	5	4	1	12

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Groupon and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	3	9	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	24	6	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	4	1	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	1	1	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Groupon.
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