Fact based stock research
Keisei Electric Railway (TSE:9009)

JP3278600006

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Keisei Electric Railway stock research in summary

keisei.co.jp

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 7 (worse than 93% compared with investment alternatives), Keisei Electric Railway (Railroads, Japan) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Keisei Electric Railway are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 15 (worse than 85% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 7), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 41), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 7, is a sell recommendation based on Keisei Electric Railway's financial characteristics. As the company Keisei Electric Railway's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 15), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 7), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 41), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	15
Growth Rank	7
Safety Rank	41
Combined Rank	7

Country	Japan
Industry	Railroads
Index	Nikkei 225
Size class	Large

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Keisei Electric Railway

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	26	17	4	15
GROWTH
GROWTH	48	49	87	7
SAFETY
SAFETY	18	22	21	41
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	12	18	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	9	12	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Keisei Electric Railway is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	26	17	4	15
GROWTH
GROWTH	48	49	87	7
SAFETY
SAFETY	18	22	21	41
COMBINED
COMBINED	21	14	22	7

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Keisei Electric Railway the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 15 (worse than 85% compared with alternatives), Keisei Electric Railway shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Keisei Electric Railway. Price-to-Sales is 13 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 87% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Keisei Electric Railway's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 29, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Keisei Electric Railway. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 47 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 92% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 15, is a sell recommendation based on Keisei Electric Railway's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Keisei Electric Railway? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Keisei Electric Railway? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Keisei Electric Railway may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	35	15	7	13
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	1	39	11	47
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	60	45	9	29
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	35	12	6	8
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	26	17	4	15

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Keisei Electric Railway; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 7 (better than 7% compared with alternatives), Keisei Electric Railway shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for Keisei Electric Railway. Sales Growth has a rank of 45, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 55% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 6, and Capital Growth with 39. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 9, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 91% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 7, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	27	63	26	45
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	67	50	76	6
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	27	57	39
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	75	29	97	9
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	48	49	87	7

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Keisei Electric Railway.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 41 (better than 41% compared with alternatives), the company Keisei Electric Railway has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Keisei Electric Railway is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Keisei Electric Railway. Leverage is at a rank of 50, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 50% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 56, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 56% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 17, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 83% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 41 (worse than 59% compared with alternatives), Keisei Electric Railway has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Keisei Electric Railway. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Keisei Electric Railway and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	29	54	42	50
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	25	21	23	17
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	26	8	28	56
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	18	22	21	41

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Keisei Electric Railway and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	24	28	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	87	89	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	34	20	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	1	9	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	12	18	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Keisei Electric Railway.
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