Fact based stock research
Neste Oil (HLSE:NESTE)

FI0009013296

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Neste Oil stock research in summary

neste.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 20 (worse than 80% compared with investment alternatives), Neste Oil (Oil & Gas Refining, Finland) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Neste Oil are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 27 (worse than 73% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 5) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 79), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 20, is a sell recommendation based on Neste Oil's financial characteristics. As the company Neste Oil's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 27) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 5), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 79) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	27
Growth Rank	5
Safety Rank	79
Combined Rank	20

Country	Finland
Industry	Oil & Gas Refining
Index	OMX 25, Low Emissions, Employee Focus EU, Energy Efficient, Human Rights
Size class	XX-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Neste Oil

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	6	10	12	27
GROWTH
GROWTH	9	4	38	5
SAFETY
SAFETY	100	80	65	79
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	64	60	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	20	26	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Neste Oil is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	6	10	12	27
GROWTH
GROWTH	9	4	38	5
SAFETY
SAFETY	100	80	65	79
COMBINED
COMBINED	22	14	18	20

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Neste Oil the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 27 (worse than 73% compared with alternatives), Neste Oil shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for Neste Oil. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 55, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 55% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Neste Oil's revenue size. The same is valid for dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 51, which means that dividends are expected to be higher than for 51% of comparable investments. On the other hand, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than for 63% of alternatives (only 37% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for the Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E) ratio, which is higher than for 85% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 27, is a hold recommendation based on Neste Oil's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a somewhat surprising picture, because it means that profits are low while dividends are high. One interpretation could be that profits are expected to increase, justifying the high dividend payments. But it could also mean that the company desperately keeps the high dividends to avoid a collapsing share price. This would be a rather dangerous constellation. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	19	15	27	55
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	39	11	34	15
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	2	13	12	37
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	43	28	44	51
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	6	10	12	27

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Neste Oil; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 5 (better than 5% compared with alternatives), Neste Oil shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below-average for Neste Oil. While Sales Growth ranks at 79, professionals currently expect the company to grow more than 79% of its competitors, while all other growth ranks are below the market median. Profit Growth has a rank of 4, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 96% of its competitors, and Capital Growth has a low rank of 16. Historic stock returns were also below average with a current Stock Returns rank of 1 which means that the stock returns have recently been below 99% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 5, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. If revenues are expected to increase, but all other growth indicators are negative, the company may be investing in future growth through means not visible in the balance sheet and thus not reflected in capital growth. The fact that Stock Returns have been below market doesn't mean that much, as it may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior in the past, which has been corrected to a more reasonable level recently. If that were the case, a positive Value Rank would be a reason to invest because the company is still expected to grow, while stock prices are now at a more reasonable level. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance isn't stellar here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	16	65	69	79
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	29	13	58	4
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	14	28	16
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	29	8	12	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	9	4	38	5

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Neste Oil.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 79 (better than 79% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Neste Oil has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Neste Oil is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Neste Oil. Leverage is at 57, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 57% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 67, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 67% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 84, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 84% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 79 (better than 79% compared with alternatives), Neste Oil has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. Investors may not have a debt issue with Neste Oil but they should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	86	81	75	57
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	73	36	44	67
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	94	90	80	84
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	100	80	65	79

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Neste Oil and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	33	51	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	64	47	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	36	36	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	81	73	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	64	60	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Neste Oil.
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