Fact based stock research
NeuroPace (NasdaqGM:NPCE)

US6412881053

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

NeuroPace stock research in summary

neuropace.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 10 (worse than 90% compared with investment alternatives), NeuroPace (Health Care Equipment, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of NeuroPace are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 29 (worse than 71% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 43), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 31), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 10, is a sell recommendation based on NeuroPace's financial characteristics. As the company NeuroPace's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 29), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 43), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 31), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	29
Growth Rank	43
Safety Rank	31
Combined Rank	10

Country	USA
Industry	Health Care Equipment
Index	NASDAQ
Size class	X-Small

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: NeuroPace

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	n/a	73	32	29
GROWTH
GROWTH	n/a	5	100	43
SAFETY
SAFETY	n/a	51	22	31
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	84	45	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	56	57	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better NeuroPace is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	n/a	73	32	29
GROWTH
GROWTH	n/a	5	100	43
SAFETY
SAFETY	n/a	51	22	31
COMBINED
COMBINED	n/a	26	57	10

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of NeuroPace the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 29 (worse than 71% compared with alternatives), NeuroPace shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for NeuroPace. Price-to-Sales is 45 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 55% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning NeuroPace's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 1, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of NeuroPace. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 12 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 29, is a hold recommendation based on NeuroPace's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for NeuroPace? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as NeuroPace? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. NeuroPace may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	n/a	60	48	45
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	n/a	44	12	12
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	n/a	86	12	1
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	n/a	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	n/a	73	32	29

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of NeuroPace; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 43 (better than 43% compared with alternatives), NeuroPace shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for NeuroPace. Sales Growth has a rank of 68 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 68% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 69. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 17, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 83% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 42, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 43, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 69% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	n/a	17	51	68
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	29	76	42
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	3	100	17
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	n/a	15	100	69
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	n/a	5	100	43

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of NeuroPace.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 31 (better than 31% compared with alternatives), the company NeuroPace has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of NeuroPace is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above-average for NeuroPace. Refinancing is at 57, meaning the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 57% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at 60, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 60% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. However, Leverage is rather large at 10, which means the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 90% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 31 (worse than 69% compared with alternatives), NeuroPace has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This is not bad if things go well. The higher debt level means better returns to shareholders if things go well. Many top-performing companies operate with higher debt levels, and NeuroPace could be in that group. But if you expect the environment to turn rougher, the higher leverage could become a problem. The same is valid if you expect interest rates to rise. That could squeeze shareholder returns, which so far have benefitted from better conditions. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with NeuroPace and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	n/a	3	16	10
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	n/a	89	59	57
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	n/a	55	58	60
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	n/a	51	22	31

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of NeuroPace and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	54	31	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	54	37	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	91	89	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	84	45	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for NeuroPace.
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