Fact based stock research
Nick Scali (ASX:NCK)
AU000000NCK1
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
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Nick Scali stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 28 (worse than 72% compared with investment alternatives), Nick Scali (Homefurnishing Retail, Australia) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Nick Scali are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 23 (worse than 77% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 32, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 69). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 28, is a hold recommendation based on Nick Scali's financial characteristics. As the company Nick Scali shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 23 (77% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 69% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 69). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 32 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Nick Scali, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | Australia |
| Industry | Homefurnishing Retail |
| Index | ASX 300 |
| Size class | Medium |
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Nick Scali
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 49 |
|
31 |
|
37 |
|
23 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 100 |
|
83 |
|
19 |
|
69 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 57 |
|
28 |
|
28 |
|
32 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
28 |
|
63 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
25 |
|
14 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 28 (worse than 72% compared with investment alternatives), Nick Scali (Homefurnishing Retail, Australia) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Nick Scali are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 23 (worse than 77% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 32, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 69). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 28, is a hold recommendation based on Nick Scali's financial characteristics. As the company Nick Scali shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 23 (77% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 69% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 69). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 32 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Nick Scali, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 49 |
|
31 |
|
37 |
|
23 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 100 |
|
83 |
|
19 |
|
69 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 57 |
|
28 |
|
28 |
|
32 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 84 |
|
43 |
|
1 |
|
28 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 23 (worse than 77% compared with alternatives), Nick Scali shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Nick Scali. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 71% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 11 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 89% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Nick Scali's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 32 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 68% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 18 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 82% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 23, is a sell recommendation based on Nick Scali's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Nick Scali? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Nick Scali only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 19 |
|
15 |
|
15 |
|
11 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 72 |
|
52 |
|
61 |
|
32 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 6 |
|
13 |
|
18 |
|
18 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 82 |
|
94 |
|
86 |
|
71 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 49 |
|
31 |
|
37 |
|
23 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 69 (better than 69% compared with alternatives), Nick Scali shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Nick Scali. Sales Growth has a rank of 90 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 90% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 8% of competitors with a rank of 55, and Stock Returns with the rank of 71 is also an outperformance. Only Profit Growth is low with a rank of 8 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 92% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 69, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. All three operating growth indicators, namely revenue, profit, and capital growth, are showing improvements. This is a good indication of a company with a positive future. That might, at the same time, be the simple reason why profit growth is low. A growing company needs money and thus can't yet show high profit growth. Look out for signs in corporate communication about extra growth efforts costing time and money. If that is the case, Nick Scali is a good growth stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 76 |
|
80 |
|
54 |
|
90 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 94 |
|
26 |
|
10 |
|
8 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
68 |
|
14 |
|
55 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 88 |
|
97 |
|
73 |
|
71 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 100 |
|
83 |
|
19 |
|
69 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 32 (better than 32% compared with alternatives), the company Nick Scali has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Nick Scali is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Nick Scali. Liquidity is at 46, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 54% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 27, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 73% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 32 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 68% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 32 (worse than 68% compared with alternatives), Nick Scali has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Nick Scali because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 59 |
|
12 |
|
17 |
|
27 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 41 |
|
32 |
|
28 |
|
32 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 48 |
|
51 |
|
49 |
|
46 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 57 |
|
28 |
|
28 |
|
32 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
79 |
|
46 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
75 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
16 |
|
96 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
31 |
|
11 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
28 |
|
63 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Nick Scali from December 19, 2024.
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