Fact based stock research
NVR (NYSE:NVR)
US62944T1051
How to read the free ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
NVR stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 12 (worse than 88% compared with investment alternatives), NVR (Homebuilding, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of NVR are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 44, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 73). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 12, is a sell recommendation based on NVR's financial characteristics. As the company NVR shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 1 (99% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 73% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 73). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 44 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for NVR, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
Latest Obermatt Ranks
Log in or sign up to see the new 360° View and Sentiment ranks.
360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Homebuilding |
| Index | S&P US Luxury, S&P 500 |
| Size class | X-Large |
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: NVR
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 8 |
|
17 |
|
7 |
|
1 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 80 |
|
83 |
|
21 |
|
73 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 83 |
|
44 |
|
44 |
|
44 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
55 |
|
47 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
61 |
|
19 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 12 (worse than 88% compared with investment alternatives), NVR (Homebuilding, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of NVR are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 44, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 73). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 12, is a sell recommendation based on NVR's financial characteristics. As the company NVR shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 1 (99% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 73% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 73). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 44 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for NVR, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 8 |
|
17 |
|
7 |
|
1 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 80 |
|
83 |
|
21 |
|
73 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 83 |
|
44 |
|
44 |
|
44 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 63 |
|
12 |
|
12 |
|
12 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with alternatives), NVR shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for NVR. Price-to-Sales is 6 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 94% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning NVR's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 9, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of NVR. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 28 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation based on NVR's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for NVR? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as NVR? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. NVR may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 35 |
|
17 |
|
9 |
|
6 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 60 |
|
36 |
|
21 |
|
28 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 4 |
|
13 |
|
17 |
|
9 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 8 |
|
17 |
|
7 |
|
1 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 73 (better than 73% compared with alternatives), NVR shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for NVR. Sales Growth has a rank of 68 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 68% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 40% of competitors with a rank of 69, and Stock Returns with the rank of 69 is also an outperformance. Only Profit Growth is low with a rank of 40 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 60% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 73, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. All three operating growth indicators, namely revenue, profit, and capital growth, are showing improvements. This is a good indication of a company with a positive future. That might, at the same time, be the simple reason why profit growth is low. A growing company needs money and thus can't yet show high profit growth. Look out for signs in corporate communication about extra growth efforts costing time and money. If that is the case, NVR is a good growth stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 57 |
|
42 |
|
8 |
|
68 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 12 |
|
45 |
|
60 |
|
40 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
90 |
|
7 |
|
69 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 71 |
|
79 |
|
61 |
|
69 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 80 |
|
83 |
|
21 |
|
73 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 44 (better than 44% compared with alternatives), the company NVR has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of NVR is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for NVR. Leverage is at 66, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 66% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 82, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 82% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 91, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 91% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 44 (worse than 56% compared with alternatives), NVR has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. Investors may not have a debt issue with NVR but they should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 55 |
|
54 |
|
62 |
|
66 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 47 |
|
82 |
|
82 |
|
82 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 87 |
|
67 |
|
77 |
|
91 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 83 |
|
44 |
|
44 |
|
44 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
10 |
|
35 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
31 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
95 |
|
77 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
34 |
|
54 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
55 |
|
47 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for NVR from November 14, 2024.
Obermatt Portfolio Performance
We’re so convinced about our free research, that we buy our stock tips.
See the performance of the Obermatt portfolio.