Fact based stock research
San Miguel (PSE:SMC)

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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San Miguel stock research in summary

sanmiguel.com.ph

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 8 (worse than 92% compared with investment alternatives), San Miguel (Industrial Conglomerates, Philippines) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of San Miguel are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 51 (better than 51% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 29), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 4), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 8, is a sell recommendation based on San Miguel's financial characteristics. As the company San Miguel's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 51) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 29) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 4), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 51% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	51
Growth Rank	29
Safety Rank	4
Combined Rank	8

Country	Philippines
Industry	Industrial Conglomerates
Index
Size class	XX-Large

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: San Miguel

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	80	91	67	51
GROWTH
GROWTH	59	55	63	29
SAFETY
SAFETY	30	37	20	4
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	47	24	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	77	27	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better San Miguel is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	80	91	67	51
GROWTH
GROWTH	59	55	63	29
SAFETY
SAFETY	30	37	20	4
COMBINED
COMBINED	59	78	45	8

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of San Miguel the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), San Miguel shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for San Miguel. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 92, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 92% of comparable companies, indicating a good value regarding San Miguel's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price to Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 71% of alternatives, and it's also true for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 78. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields are expected to be lower than average; only 1% of all competitors have even lower dividend yields than San Miguel (a Dividend Yield Rank of 1). 99% alternative investments in the same business provide a higher dividend yield. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 51, is a buy recommendation based on San Miguel's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The below-average dividend yield may be a good sign, as it could mean the company has more attractive investment opportunities for the generated cash than to pay it out as dividends. A low dividend yield can also indicate a growth phase. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	83	93	91	92
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	77	83	71	71
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	82	89	77	78
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	51	71	50	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	80	91	67	51

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of San Miguel; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 29 (better than 29% compared with alternatives), San Miguel shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for San Miguel. While Profit Growth has a good rank of 85, as professionals currently expect the company to grow its profits more than 85% of its competitors, all other growth indicators are below market averages. Sales Growth has a rank of 7, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 93% of its competitors, while Capital Growth has a rank of 39 and Stock Returns have been below market median, with a rank of 9 (91% of alternative investments were better). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 29, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. While revenue growth and capital growth are good growth momentum indicators, profit is less reliable, because profits may increase due to cost-cutting measures which typically indicate negative growth momentum. "You can save a dollar only once" is the saying about such situations. Growth Investors should look at company priorities closely if they are interested in growth, because the increase in profits is not usually an indicator of growth, and stock prices have been below market, too. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	66	33	31	7
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	100	84	85
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	63	69	39
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	20	15	57	9
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	59	55	63	29

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of San Miguel.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 4 (better than 4% compared with alternatives), the company San Miguel has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of San Miguel is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for San Miguel. Liquidity is at 25, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 75% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 8, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 92% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 5 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 95% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 4 (worse than 96% compared with alternatives), San Miguel has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of San Miguel because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	4	14	10	8
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	86	90	70	5
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	27	24	33	25
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	30	37	20	4

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of San Miguel and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	26	22	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	55	28	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	57	51	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	47	24	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for San Miguel.
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