Fact based stock research
Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE)
AU000000TWE9
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
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Treasury Wine Estates stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 47 (worse than 53% compared with investment alternatives), Treasury Wine Estates (Distillers & Vintners, Australia) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Treasury Wine Estates are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 39, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 70). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 47, is a hold recommendation based on Treasury Wine Estates's financial characteristics. As the company Treasury Wine Estates shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 37 (63% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 70% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 70). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 39 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Treasury Wine Estates, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° ViewnewThis stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Treasury Wine Estates
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 80 |
|
19 |
|
34 |
|
37 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 38 |
|
81 |
|
65 |
|
70 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 33 |
|
39 |
|
35 |
|
39 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
97 |
|
56 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
75 |
|
47 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 47 (worse than 53% compared with investment alternatives), Treasury Wine Estates (Distillers & Vintners, Australia) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Treasury Wine Estates are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 39, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 70). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 47, is a hold recommendation based on Treasury Wine Estates's financial characteristics. As the company Treasury Wine Estates shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 37 (63% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 70% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 70). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 39 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Treasury Wine Estates, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 80 |
|
19 |
|
34 |
|
37 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 38 |
|
81 |
|
65 |
|
70 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 33 |
|
39 |
|
35 |
|
39 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 24 |
|
31 |
|
38 |
|
47 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% compared with alternatives), Treasury Wine Estates shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Treasury Wine Estates. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 82% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 3 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 97% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Treasury Wine Estates's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 38 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 62% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 25 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 75% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 37, is a hold recommendation based on Treasury Wine Estates's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Treasury Wine Estates? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Treasury Wine Estates only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 69 |
|
7 |
|
3 |
|
3 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 60 |
|
21 |
|
31 |
|
38 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 55 |
|
21 |
|
34 |
|
25 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 72 |
|
63 |
|
83 |
|
82 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 80 |
|
19 |
|
34 |
|
37 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 70 (better than 70% compared with alternatives), Treasury Wine Estates shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Treasury Wine Estates. Profit Growth has a rank of 64 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 64% of its competitors. The same is valid for capital growth and stock returns. Capital Growth has a rank of 73, and Stock Returns has a rank of 65 which means that the stock returns have recently been above 65% of alternative investments. Only revenue growth is low with a Sales Growth has a rank of 34 (66% of its competitors are better). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 70, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The many positive growth indicators indicate a positive growth momentum with only low revenue growth. That can also be attributed to divestments or the sale of unprofitable businesses. If that is the reason, overall growth is well on track to making this stock attractive for growth investors. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 13 |
|
94 |
|
94 |
|
34 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 74 |
|
45 |
|
46 |
|
64 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
17 |
|
78 |
|
73 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 70 |
|
97 |
|
9 |
|
65 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 38 |
|
81 |
|
65 |
|
70 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 39 (better than 39% compared with alternatives), the company Treasury Wine Estates has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Treasury Wine Estates is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Treasury Wine Estates. Liquidity is at 51, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 51% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 37, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 63% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 38, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 62% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 39 (worse than 61% compared with alternatives), Treasury Wine Estates has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 35 |
|
50 |
|
42 |
|
38 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 61 |
|
35 |
|
33 |
|
37 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 68 |
|
47 |
|
51 |
|
51 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 33 |
|
39 |
|
35 |
|
39 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
59 |
|
67 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
43 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
91 |
|
44 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
85 |
|
80 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
97 |
|
56 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Treasury Wine Estates from December 19, 2024.
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