Fact based stock research
Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE)

AU000000TWE9

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Treasury Wine Estates stock research in summary

tweglobal.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 45 (worse than 55% compared with investment alternatives), Treasury Wine Estates (Distillers & Vintners, Australia) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Treasury Wine Estates are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 25 (worse than 75% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 41, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 77). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 45, is a hold recommendation based on Treasury Wine Estates's financial characteristics. As the company Treasury Wine Estates shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 25 (75% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 77% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 77). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 41 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Treasury Wine Estates, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	25
Growth Rank	77
Safety Rank	41
Combined Rank	45

Country	Australia
Industry	Distillers & Vintners
Index	ASX 100, ASX 200, ASX 300, ASX 50
Size class	Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Treasury Wine Estates

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	80	19	34	25
GROWTH
GROWTH	38	81	65	77
SAFETY
SAFETY	33	39	35	41
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	97	56	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	75	47	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Treasury Wine Estates is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	80	19	34	25
GROWTH
GROWTH	38	81	65	77
SAFETY
SAFETY	33	39	35	41
COMBINED
COMBINED	24	31	38	45

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Treasury Wine Estates the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 25 (worse than 75% compared with alternatives), Treasury Wine Estates shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Treasury Wine Estates. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 79% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 3 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 97% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Treasury Wine Estates's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 38 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 62% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 21 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 79% of comparable investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 25, is a hold recommendation based on Treasury Wine Estates's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Treasury Wine Estates? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Treasury Wine Estates only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	69	7	3	3
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	60	21	31	38
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	55	21	34	21
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	72	63	83	79
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	80	19	34	25

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Treasury Wine Estates; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 77 (better than 77% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Treasury Wine Estates shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Treasury Wine Estates. Sales Growth has a rank of 83 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 83% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 66, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 59, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 38, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 62% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 77, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	13	94	94	83
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	74	45	46	66
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	17	78	38
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	70	97	9	59
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	38	81	65	77

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Treasury Wine Estates.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 41 (better than 41% compared with alternatives), the company Treasury Wine Estates has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Treasury Wine Estates is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Treasury Wine Estates. Liquidity is at 51, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 51% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 37, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 63% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 38, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 62% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 41 (worse than 59% compared with alternatives), Treasury Wine Estates has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	35	50	42	38
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	61	35	33	37
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	68	47	51	51
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	33	39	35	41

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Treasury Wine Estates and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	59	67	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	43	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	91	44	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	85	80	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	97	56	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Treasury Wine Estates.
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