Fact based stock research
A. O. Smith (NYSE:AOS)

US8318652091

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

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A. O. Smith stock research in summary

aosmith.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 34 (worse than 66% compared with investment alternatives), A. O. Smith (Building Products, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of A. O. Smith are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 34 (worse than 66% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 20) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 82), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 34, is a hold recommendation based on A. O. Smith's financial characteristics. As the company A. O. Smith's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 34) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 20), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 82) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	34
Growth Rank	20
Safety Rank	82
Combined Rank	34

Country	USA
Industry	Building Products
Index	Dividends USA, Water Tech, S&P 500
Size class	X-Large

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: A. O. Smith

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	48	37	27	34
GROWTH
GROWTH	60	99	81	20
SAFETY
SAFETY	65	77	64	82
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	30	91	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	79	80	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better A. O. Smith is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	48	37	27	34
GROWTH
GROWTH	60	99	81	20
SAFETY
SAFETY	65	77	64	82
COMBINED
COMBINED	65	94	59	34

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of A. O. Smith the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 34 (worse than 66% compared with alternatives), A. O. Smith shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for A. O. Smith. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 55 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 55% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning A. O. Smith's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 14, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 14% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 64% of alternatives (only 36% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 12% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 34, is a hold recommendation based on A. O. Smith's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	33	32	24	36
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	68	36	28	55
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	10	16	12	14
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	76	91	85	88
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	48	37	27	34

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of A. O. Smith; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 20 (better than 20% compared with alternatives), A. O. Smith shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for A. O. Smith. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 21, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 79% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 28, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 40. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 60% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 54, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 54% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 20, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for A. O. Smith, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	61	61	36	21
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	43	64	63	40
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	67	90	28
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	44	93	81	54
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	60	99	81	20

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of A. O. Smith.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 82 (better than 82% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company A. O. Smith has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of A. O. Smith is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for A. O. Smith. Leverage is at a rank of 71, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 71% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 96, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 96% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 20, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 80% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 82 (better than 82% compared with alternatives), A. O. Smith has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for A. O. Smith. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with A. O. Smith and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	70	76	60	71
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	16	19	13	20
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	91	93	86	96
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	65	77	64	82

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of A. O. Smith and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	30	19	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	18	71	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	27	75	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	76	90	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	30	91	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for A. O. Smith.
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