Fact based stock research
The a2 Milk Company (NZSE:ATM)
NZATME0002S8
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
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The a2 Milk Company stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 65 (better than 65% compared with investment alternatives), The a2 Milk Company (Packaged Foods & Meats, New Zealand) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of The a2 Milk Company are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 9 (worse than 91% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 95) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 65, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 65, is a buy recommendation based on The a2 Milk Company's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company The a2 Milk Company exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 9), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 95). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 65) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° ViewnewThis stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: The a2 Milk Company
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 16 |
|
5 |
|
6 |
|
9 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 1 |
|
89 |
|
67 |
|
95 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 92 |
|
85 |
|
71 |
|
65 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
39 |
|
56 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
51 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 65 (better than 65% compared with investment alternatives), The a2 Milk Company (Packaged Foods & Meats, New Zealand) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of The a2 Milk Company are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 9 (worse than 91% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 95) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 65, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 65, is a buy recommendation based on The a2 Milk Company's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company The a2 Milk Company exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 9), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 95). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 65) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 16 |
|
5 |
|
6 |
|
9 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 1 |
|
89 |
|
67 |
|
95 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 92 |
|
85 |
|
71 |
|
65 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 24 |
|
79 |
|
42 |
|
65 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 9 (worse than 91% compared with alternatives), The a2 Milk Company shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for The a2 Milk Company. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 56% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 5 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 95% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning The a2 Milk Company's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 13 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 87% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 9 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 91% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 9, is a sell recommendation based on The a2 Milk Company's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick The a2 Milk Company? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose The a2 Milk Company only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 31 |
|
11 |
|
15 |
|
5 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 33 |
|
7 |
|
26 |
|
13 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 34 |
|
9 |
|
13 |
|
9 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
12 |
|
8 |
|
56 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 16 |
|
5 |
|
6 |
|
9 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 95 (better than 95% compared with alternatives) for 2024, The a2 Milk Company shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for The a2 Milk Company. Sales Growth has a rank of 88 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 88% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 39% of competitors with a rank of 82, and Stock Returns with the rank of 93 is also an outperformance. Only Profit Growth is low with a rank of 39 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 61% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 95, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. All three operating growth indicators, namely revenue, profit, and capital growth, are showing improvements. This is a good indication of a company with a positive future. That might, at the same time, be the simple reason why profit growth is low. A growing company needs money and thus can't yet show high profit growth. Look out for signs in corporate communication about extra growth efforts costing time and money. If that is the case, The a2 Milk Company is a good growth stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 3 |
|
96 |
|
88 |
|
88 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 100 |
|
72 |
|
37 |
|
39 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
91 |
|
100 |
|
82 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 8 |
|
1 |
|
5 |
|
93 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 1 |
|
89 |
|
67 |
|
95 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 65 (better than 65% compared with alternatives), the company The a2 Milk Company has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of The a2 Milk Company is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for The a2 Milk Company. Leverage is at a rank of 86, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 86% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 59, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 59% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 35, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 65% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 65 (better than 65% compared with alternatives), The a2 Milk Company has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for The a2 Milk Company. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with The a2 Milk Company and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 96 |
|
96 |
|
82 |
|
86 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 20 |
|
45 |
|
33 |
|
35 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 97 |
|
87 |
|
67 |
|
59 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 92 |
|
85 |
|
71 |
|
65 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
25 |
|
54 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
35 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
39 |
|
58 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
87 |
|
76 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
39 |
|
56 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for The a2 Milk Company from December 19, 2024.
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