Fact based stock research
Acadia Healthcare (NasdaqGS:ACHC)

US00404A1097

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Acadia Healthcare stock research in summary

acadiahealthcare.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 39 (worse than 61% compared with investment alternatives), Acadia Healthcare (Health Care Facilities, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Acadia Healthcare are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 55 (better than 55% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 70, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 15). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 39, is a hold recommendation based on Acadia Healthcare's financial characteristics. As the company Acadia Healthcare's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 55) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 15) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 70), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 55% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	55
Growth Rank	15
Safety Rank	70
Combined Rank	39

Country	USA
Industry	Health Care Facilities
Index	NASDAQ, D.J. US Health Care, S&P MIDCAP
Size class	Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Acadia Healthcare

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	24	38	8	55
GROWTH
GROWTH	39	75	55	15
SAFETY
SAFETY	31	34	62	70
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	33	42	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	33	33	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Acadia Healthcare is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	24	38	8	55
GROWTH
GROWTH	39	75	55	15
SAFETY
SAFETY	31	34	62	70
COMBINED
COMBINED	6	42	28	39

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Acadia Healthcare the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 55 (better than 55% compared with alternatives), Acadia Healthcare shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Acadia Healthcare. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 84 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 84% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Acadia Healthcare's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 72, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 72% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than for 65% of alternatives (only 35% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than for 99% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 55, is a buy recommendation based on Acadia Healthcare's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high concerning expected revenues, the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting Group or BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than distribute it to shareholders through dividends, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	59	29	14	35
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	1	34	35	84
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	67	75	47	72
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	24	38	8	55

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Acadia Healthcare; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 15 (better than 15% compared with alternatives), Acadia Healthcare shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below-average for Acadia Healthcare. While Sales Growth ranks at 70, professionals currently expect the company to grow more than 70% of its competitors, while all other growth ranks are below the market median. Profit Growth has a rank of 30, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 70% of its competitors, and Capital Growth has a low rank of 20. Historic stock returns were also below average with a current Stock Returns rank of 11 which means that the stock returns have recently been below 89% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 15, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. If revenues are expected to increase, but all other growth indicators are negative, the company may be investing in future growth through means not visible in the balance sheet and thus not reflected in capital growth. The fact that Stock Returns have been below market doesn't mean that much, as it may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior in the past, which has been corrected to a more reasonable level recently. If that were the case, a positive Value Rank would be a reason to invest because the company is still expected to grow, while stock prices are now at a more reasonable level. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance isn't stellar here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	1	46	70	70
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	50	38	55	30
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	90	64	20
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	92	65	29	11
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	39	75	55	15

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Acadia Healthcare.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 70 (better than 70% compared with alternatives), the company Acadia Healthcare has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Acadia Healthcare is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Acadia Healthcare. Leverage is at a rank of 68, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 68% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 64, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 64% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 28, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 72% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 70 (better than 70% compared with alternatives), Acadia Healthcare has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Acadia Healthcare. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Acadia Healthcare and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	41	36	66	68
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	55	34	18	28
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	47	43	62	64
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	31	34	62	70

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Acadia Healthcare and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	33	46	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	63	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	43	46	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	42	26	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	33	42	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Acadia Healthcare.
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