Fact based stock research
AerCap (NYSE:AER)
NL0000687663
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
AerCap stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 22 (worse than 78% compared with investment alternatives), AerCap (Trading & Distribution, Ireland) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of AerCap are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 51 (better than 51% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 23), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 22), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 22, is a sell recommendation based on AerCap's financial characteristics. As the company AerCap's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 51) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 23) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 22), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 51% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | Ireland |
| Industry | Trading & Distribution |
| Index | |
| Size class | X-Large |
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: AerCap
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 68 |
|
63 |
|
44 |
|
51 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 17 |
|
100 |
|
46 |
|
23 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 1 |
|
22 |
|
22 |
|
22 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
65 |
|
52 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
91 |
|
46 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 22 (worse than 78% compared with investment alternatives), AerCap (Trading & Distribution, Ireland) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of AerCap are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 51 (better than 51% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 23), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 22), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 22, is a sell recommendation based on AerCap's financial characteristics. As the company AerCap's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 51) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 23) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 22), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 51% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 68 |
|
63 |
|
44 |
|
51 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 17 |
|
100 |
|
46 |
|
23 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 1 |
|
22 |
|
22 |
|
22 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 1 |
|
22 |
|
22 |
|
22 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), AerCap shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for AerCap. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 73 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 73% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning AerCap's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 70, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 70% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than for 69% of alternatives (only 31% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than for 54% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 51, is a buy recommendation based on AerCap's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high concerning expected revenues, the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting Group or BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than distribute it to shareholders through dividends, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 68 |
|
49 |
|
31 |
|
31 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 80 |
|
87 |
|
75 |
|
73 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 77 |
|
81 |
|
77 |
|
70 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
46 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 68 |
|
63 |
|
44 |
|
51 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 23 (better than 23% compared with alternatives), AerCap shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for AerCap. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 16, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 84% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 34, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 14. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 86% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 77, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 77% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 23, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for AerCap, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 7 |
|
92 |
|
13 |
|
16 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | n/a |
|
100 |
|
57 |
|
14 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
82 |
|
42 |
|
34 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 79 |
|
83 |
|
73 |
|
77 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 17 |
|
100 |
|
46 |
|
23 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 22 (better than 22% compared with alternatives), the company AerCap has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of AerCap is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for AerCap and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 68, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 68% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 14, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 86% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 18, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 82% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 22 (worse than 78% compared with alternatives), AerCap has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for AerCap are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with AerCap and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 2 |
|
6 |
|
10 |
|
14 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 68 |
|
68 |
|
68 |
|
68 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 3 |
|
27 |
|
24 |
|
18 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 1 |
|
22 |
|
22 |
|
22 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
73 |
|
81 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
94 |
|
36 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
60 |
|
92 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
2 |
|
5 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
65 |
|
52 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for AerCap from December 19, 2024.
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