Fact based stock research
AeroVironment (NasdaqGS:AVAV)

US0080731088

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

AeroVironment stock research in summary

avinc.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 25 (worse than 75% compared with investment alternatives), AeroVironment (Aerospace & Defense, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of AeroVironment are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 3 (worse than 97% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 43, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 71). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 25, is a hold recommendation based on AeroVironment's financial characteristics. As the company AeroVironment shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 3 (97% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 71% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 71). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 43 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for AeroVironment, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	3
Growth Rank	71
Safety Rank	43
Combined Rank	25

Country	USA
Industry	Aerospace & Defense
Index	Robotics, NASDAQ
Size class	Medium

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: AeroVironment

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	9	21	6	3
GROWTH
GROWTH	27	19	93	71
SAFETY
SAFETY	20	68	90	43
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	49	100	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	20	92	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 27-Jul-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better AeroVironment is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	9	21	6	3
GROWTH
GROWTH	27	19	93	71
SAFETY
SAFETY	20	68	90	43
COMBINED
COMBINED	7	12	85	25

Last update of combined financial performance: 4-Jul-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of AeroVironment the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 3 (worse than 97% compared with alternatives), AeroVironment shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for AeroVironment. Price-to-Sales is 9 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 91% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning AeroVironment's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 18, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of AeroVironment. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 5 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 3, is a sell recommendation based on AeroVironment's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for AeroVironment? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as AeroVironment? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. AeroVironment may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	29	23	9	9
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	20	17	17	5
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	43	55	21	18
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	9	21	6	3

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of AeroVironment; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 71 (better than 71% compared with alternatives), AeroVironment shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for AeroVironment. Sales Growth has a rank of 82 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 82% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 65, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 87, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 10, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 90% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 71, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	49	57	81	82
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	44	4	98	65
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	69	51	10
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	63	9	87	87
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	27	19	93	71

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of AeroVironment.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 43 (better than 43% compared with alternatives), the company AeroVironment has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of AeroVironment is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for AeroVironment and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 93 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 93% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 32, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 68% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 7, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 93% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 43 (worse than 57% compared with alternatives), AeroVironment has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of AeroVironment are on the safer side. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge and liquidity issues with AeroVironment and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	29	62	75	93
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	49	53	54	32
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	46	62	97	7
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	20	68	90	43

Last update of Safety Rank: 4-Jul-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of AeroVironment and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	3	100	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	98	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	61	42	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	84	74	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	49	100	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for AeroVironment.
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