Fact based stock research
AFG (NYSE:AFG)
US0259321042
How to read the free ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
AFG stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with investment alternatives), AFG (Property & Casualty Insurance, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of AFG are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 52 (better than 52% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 25), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 23), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on AFG's financial characteristics. As the company AFG's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 52) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 25) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 23), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 52% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Property & Casualty Insurance |
| Index | D.J. US Insurance, S&P MIDCAP |
| Size class | X-Large |
This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.
26-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: AFG
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 33 |
|
39 |
|
44 |
|
52 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 79 |
|
75 |
|
33 |
|
25 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 91 |
|
23 |
|
23 |
|
23 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
73 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
81 |
|
45 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with investment alternatives), AFG (Property & Casualty Insurance, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of AFG are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 52 (better than 52% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 25), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 23), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on AFG's financial characteristics. As the company AFG's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 52) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 25) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 23), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 52% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 33 |
|
39 |
|
44 |
|
52 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 79 |
|
75 |
|
33 |
|
25 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 91 |
|
23 |
|
23 |
|
23 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 76 |
|
6 |
|
6 |
|
6 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 52 (better than 52% compared with alternatives), AFG shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for AFG. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 53 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 53% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning AFG's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 38, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 38% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 59% of alternatives (only 41% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 29% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 52, is a buy recommendation based on AFG's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 25 |
|
34 |
|
35 |
|
41 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 86 |
|
56 |
|
71 |
|
53 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 16 |
|
26 |
|
31 |
|
38 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 40 |
|
51 |
|
62 |
|
71 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 33 |
|
39 |
|
44 |
|
52 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 25 (better than 25% compared with alternatives), AFG shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for AFG. Sales Growth has a rank of 45, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 55% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 17, and Capital Growth with 45. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 33, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 67% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 25, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 35 |
|
65 |
|
74 |
|
45 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 23 |
|
39 |
|
24 |
|
17 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
37 |
|
47 |
|
45 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 96 |
|
99 |
|
23 |
|
33 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 79 |
|
75 |
|
33 |
|
25 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 23 (better than 23% compared with alternatives), the company AFG has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of AFG is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for AFG. Leverage is at 60, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 60% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 51, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 51% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 65, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 65% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 23 (worse than 77% compared with alternatives), AFG has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. Investors may not have a debt issue with AFG but they should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 82 |
|
40 |
|
49 |
|
60 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 71 |
|
51 |
|
51 |
|
51 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 85 |
|
20 |
|
62 |
|
65 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 91 |
|
23 |
|
23 |
|
23 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
64 |
|
66 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
97 |
|
40 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
28 |
|
59 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
73 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for AFG from December 26, 2024.
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