Fact based stock research
Air Canada (TSX:AC)
CA0089118776
How to read the free ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Air Canada stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 42 (worse than 58% compared with investment alternatives), Air Canada (Airlines, Canada) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Air Canada are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 60 (better than 60% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 72) but are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 14), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 42, is a hold recommendation based on Air Canada's financial characteristics. As the company Air Canada's key financial metrics exhibit excellent performance in two areas, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 60) and above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 72), it could be argued that the risk-taking in financing (Obermatt Safety Rank of only 14) indicates that the company is optimistic about the future and sees debt as an opportunity to boost returns. More debt means more shareholder returns if everything goes well. However, higher debt burdens are risky when interest rates rise or the business deteriorates in a crisis. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | Canada |
| Industry | Airlines |
| Index | Low Emissions, TSX Composite |
| Size class | XX-Large |
26-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Air Canada
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
|
65 |
|
47 |
|
60 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 19 |
|
61 |
|
81 |
|
72 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 6 |
|
25 |
|
32 |
|
14 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
27 |
|
80 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
32 |
|
76 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 42 (worse than 58% compared with investment alternatives), Air Canada (Airlines, Canada) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Air Canada are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 60 (better than 60% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 72) but are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 14), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 42, is a hold recommendation based on Air Canada's financial characteristics. As the company Air Canada's key financial metrics exhibit excellent performance in two areas, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 60) and above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 72), it could be argued that the risk-taking in financing (Obermatt Safety Rank of only 14) indicates that the company is optimistic about the future and sees debt as an opportunity to boost returns. More debt means more shareholder returns if everything goes well. However, higher debt burdens are risky when interest rates rise or the business deteriorates in a crisis. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
|
65 |
|
47 |
|
60 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 19 |
|
61 |
|
81 |
|
72 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 6 |
|
25 |
|
32 |
|
14 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 1 |
|
48 |
|
46 |
|
42 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 60 (better than 60% compared with alternatives), Air Canada shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half are above average for Air Canada. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 87, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 87% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Air Canada's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 97% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 (dividends are expected to be higher than for 1% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 67% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for Air Canada to 33. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 60, is a buy recommendation based on Air Canada's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner on assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities, or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the low Dividend Yield is also explained as such companies tend to invest their income into market development. The other good value ranks for Sales and Profits are encouraging indicators for the stock price value. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 47 |
|
77 |
|
85 |
|
87 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 10 |
|
5 |
|
95 |
|
97 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 1 |
|
100 |
|
1 |
|
33 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 1 |
|
65 |
|
47 |
|
60 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 72 (better than 72% compared with alternatives), Air Canada shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Air Canada. Capital Growth has a rank of 87, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 42% of its competitors. Investors welcomed this, visible in the Stock Returns rank of 68 (above 68% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has only a rank of 46, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 54% of its competitors, and Profit Growth is also low at a rank of 42. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 72, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is an ambiguous picture. Revenue growth and capital growth are strong, but the growth in profit, which seems good, can also be an indication that growth momentum may be negative. The fact that stock returns have been above average doesn't help much, as stock returns are less reliable in showing a company’s future growth potential. Prices may perform well for the simple reason that investors were too pessimistic in the past and are now correcting their opinions and moving the stock price to a more reasonable level. As the growth picture is mixed for Air Canada, investors may want to look at value and sentiment indicators for a well-rounded picture of this stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 3 |
|
98 |
|
41 |
|
46 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 22 |
|
23 |
|
96 |
|
42 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
56 |
|
93 |
|
87 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 73 |
|
35 |
|
39 |
|
68 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 19 |
|
61 |
|
81 |
|
72 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 14 (better than 14% compared with alternatives), the company Air Canada has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Air Canada is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Air Canada. Liquidity is at 37, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 63% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 7, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 93% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 29 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 71% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 14 (worse than 86% compared with alternatives), Air Canada has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Air Canada because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 22 |
|
6 |
|
4 |
|
7 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 6 |
|
86 |
|
86 |
|
29 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 8 |
|
26 |
|
18 |
|
37 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 6 |
|
25 |
|
32 |
|
14 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
61 |
|
87 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
56 |
|
58 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
25 |
|
63 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
20 |
|
46 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
27 |
|
80 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Air Canada from December 26, 2024.
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