Fact based stock research
Airtel Africa (LSE:AAF)

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Airtel Africa stock research in summary

airtel.africa

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with investment alternatives), Airtel Africa (Wireless Telecommunication, United Kingdom) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Airtel Africa are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 40 (worse than 60% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 32), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 4), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on Airtel Africa's financial characteristics. As the company Airtel Africa's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 40), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 32), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 4), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	40
Growth Rank	32
Safety Rank	4
Combined Rank	6

Country	United Kingdom
Industry	Wireless Telecommunication
Index	FTSE All Shares, FTSE 250, FTSE 350
Size class	X-Large

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Airtel Africa

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	61	37	32	40
GROWTH
GROWTH	97	100	81	32
SAFETY
SAFETY	23	14	12	4
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	10	64	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	25	42	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Airtel Africa is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	61	37	32	40
GROWTH
GROWTH	97	100	81	32
SAFETY
SAFETY	23	14	12	4
COMBINED
COMBINED	68	59	33	6

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Airtel Africa the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 40 (worse than 60% compared with alternatives), Airtel Africa shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Airtel Africa. Only Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) indicates good stock value with a rank of 57, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 57% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Airtel Africa's profit levels. But Price-to-Sales is 44 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than for 56% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Airtel Africa's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 23 and for dividend yield, which is lower than for 66% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 40, is a hold recommendation based on Airtel Africa's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Can we rely on only one good value indicator? Only if we know the company well. In this case, a high Price-to-Profit Rank, while Price-to-Sales and Price-to-Book are both below the market typical levels, means that the company can charge higher prices for its products and needs less capital to produce them. If this is sustainable, then Airtel Africa is a good investment because profits count most in enterprise valuations. The low dividend yield indicates that the company is confident it can do something with the generated cash that is more valuable than paying the profits out to the shareholders in the form of dividends. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	58	44	37	44
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	71	62	52	57
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	51	32	37	23
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	48	32	32	34
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	61	37	32	40

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Airtel Africa; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 32 (better than 32% compared with alternatives), Airtel Africa shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below-average for Airtel Africa. While Sales Growth ranks at 96, professionals currently expect the company to grow more than 96% of its competitors, while all other growth ranks are below the market median. Profit Growth has a rank of 20, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 80% of its competitors, and Capital Growth has a low rank of 35. Historic stock returns were also below average with a current Stock Returns rank of 20 which means that the stock returns have recently been below 80% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 32, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. If revenues are expected to increase, but all other growth indicators are negative, the company may be investing in future growth through means not visible in the balance sheet and thus not reflected in capital growth. The fact that Stock Returns have been below market doesn't mean that much, as it may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior in the past, which has been corrected to a more reasonable level recently. If that were the case, a positive Value Rank would be a reason to invest because the company is still expected to grow, while stock prices are now at a more reasonable level. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance isn't stellar here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	87	84	84	96
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	78	25	20
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	55	66	35
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	89	97	75	20
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	97	100	81	32

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Airtel Africa.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 4 (better than 4% compared with alternatives), the company Airtel Africa has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Airtel Africa is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Airtel Africa. Liquidity is at 42, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 58% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 19, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 81% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 8 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 92% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 4 (worse than 96% compared with alternatives), Airtel Africa has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Airtel Africa because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	30	32	38	19
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	11	25	7	8
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	64	37	44	42
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	23	14	12	4

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Airtel Africa and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	29	81	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	32	67	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	39	65	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	32	13	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	10	64	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Airtel Africa.
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