Fact based stock research
Ambac (NasdaqGS:AMBC)
US0231398845
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Ambac stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with investment alternatives), Ambac (Property & Casualty Insurance, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Ambac are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 25 (worse than 75% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 3), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 4), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on Ambac's financial characteristics. As the company Ambac's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 25), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 3), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 4), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Property & Casualty Insurance |
| Index | |
| Size class | Small |
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Ambac
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 14 |
|
25 |
|
20 |
|
25 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 88 |
|
3 |
|
67 |
|
3 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 16 |
|
4 |
|
4 |
|
4 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
3 |
|
24 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
1 |
|
61 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with investment alternatives), Ambac (Property & Casualty Insurance, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Ambac are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 25 (worse than 75% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 3), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 4), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on Ambac's financial characteristics. As the company Ambac's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 25), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 3), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 4), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 14 |
|
25 |
|
20 |
|
25 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 88 |
|
3 |
|
67 |
|
3 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 16 |
|
4 |
|
4 |
|
4 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 34 |
|
6 |
|
6 |
|
6 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 25 (worse than 75% compared with alternatives), Ambac shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators where three out of four are below average for Ambac. Only the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) indicates good stock value with a Price-to-Book Rank of 97, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 97% of comparable investments. All other value indicators are below the market median. Price-to-Sales is 36 which means the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 64% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Ambac's revenue levels. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 97 and for the dividend yields rank which is lower than for 99% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 25, is a hold recommendation based on Ambac's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Why are market participants paying such a high price for Ambac, where three out of four value indicators are below par? One reason could be that the company is well financed, indicated by the high book capital level, and has a promising future that is not yet visible in reported revenues and profits. That would also explain the low dividend yield because the company needs the cash to invest in its future. If investors can verify a picture in this sense, the stock may still be a good investment, even though current company-reported financials don't fully explain current stock prices. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 20 |
|
5 |
|
22 |
|
36 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 14 |
|
100 |
|
5 |
|
1 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 86 |
|
83 |
|
100 |
|
97 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 14 |
|
25 |
|
20 |
|
25 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 3 (better than 3% compared with alternatives), Ambac shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Ambac. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 53, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 17% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 19 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 81% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 17 and Stock Returns with a rank of 3 are also low (below 97% of alternative investments). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 3, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for Ambac is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 100 |
|
1 |
|
88 |
|
19 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 1 |
|
85 |
|
1 |
|
17 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
3 |
|
99 |
|
53 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 39 |
|
19 |
|
29 |
|
3 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 88 |
|
3 |
|
67 |
|
3 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 4 (better than 4% compared with alternatives), the company Ambac has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Ambac is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Ambac and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 86, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 86% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 1, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 99% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 10, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 90% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 4 (worse than 96% compared with alternatives), Ambac has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for Ambac are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Ambac and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 73 |
|
86 |
|
86 |
|
86 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 15 |
|
10 |
|
19 |
|
10 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 16 |
|
4 |
|
4 |
|
4 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
14 |
|
62 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
43 |
|
28 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
14 |
|
19 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
3 |
|
24 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Ambac from November 14, 2024.
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