Fact based stock research
Antero Resources (NYSE:AR)
US03674X1063
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
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Antero Resources stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 12 (worse than 88% compared with investment alternatives), Antero Resources (Oil & Gas Production, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Antero Resources are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 25 (worse than 75% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 45), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 30), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 12, is a sell recommendation based on Antero Resources's financial characteristics. As the company Antero Resources's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 25), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 45), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 30), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Antero Resources
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 32 |
|
65 |
|
33 |
|
25 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 53 |
|
75 |
|
3 |
|
45 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 1 |
|
19 |
|
50 |
|
30 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
19 |
|
8 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
33 |
|
6 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 12 (worse than 88% compared with investment alternatives), Antero Resources (Oil & Gas Production, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Antero Resources are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 25 (worse than 75% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 45), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 30), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 12, is a sell recommendation based on Antero Resources's financial characteristics. As the company Antero Resources's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 25), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 45), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 30), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 32 |
|
65 |
|
33 |
|
25 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 53 |
|
75 |
|
3 |
|
45 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 1 |
|
19 |
|
50 |
|
30 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 9 |
|
53 |
|
4 |
|
12 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 25 (worse than 75% compared with alternatives), Antero Resources shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for Antero Resources. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 55, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 55% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Antero Resources's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio), which is more favorable than for 53% of alternatives (47% of peers have a higher ratio). But expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 are lower than average (dividends are expected to be lower than 99% of other stocks) while the Price to Profit ratio (or Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio) is higher than average with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 25, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 25, is a hold recommendation based on Antero Resources's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Low profits and low dividends as seen here for Antero Resources may indicate a restructuring phase. This could be transitory, making the company a good value when profits recover and dividends return to higher levels. If the stock price is compared with the size indicators for revenue and invested capital, it is on the lower side, making this stock a good value investment (apart from current profit and dividend expectations). We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 79 |
|
90 |
|
72 |
|
55 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 3 |
|
66 |
|
20 |
|
25 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 63 |
|
75 |
|
67 |
|
53 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 32 |
|
65 |
|
33 |
|
25 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 45 (better than 45% compared with alternatives), Antero Resources shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Antero Resources. Sales Growth has a rank of 70 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 70% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 63. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 39, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 61% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 15, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 45, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 63% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 79 |
|
67 |
|
48 |
|
70 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 1 |
|
68 |
|
20 |
|
15 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
36 |
|
10 |
|
39 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 92 |
|
73 |
|
9 |
|
63 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 53 |
|
75 |
|
3 |
|
45 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 30 (better than 30% compared with alternatives), the company Antero Resources has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Antero Resources is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Antero Resources and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 72 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 72% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 14, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 86% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 28, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 72% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 30 (worse than 70% compared with alternatives), Antero Resources has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of Antero Resources are on the safer side. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge and liquidity issues with Antero Resources and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 6 |
|
73 |
|
84 |
|
72 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 1 |
|
11 |
|
12 |
|
14 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 6 |
|
9 |
|
55 |
|
28 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 1 |
|
19 |
|
50 |
|
30 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
46 |
|
32 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
12 |
|
10 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
65 |
|
8 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
8 |
|
5 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
19 |
|
8 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Antero Resources from November 14, 2024.
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