Fact based stock research
Antero Resources (NYSE:AR)
US03674X1063
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
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Antero Resources stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 8 (worse than 92% compared with investment alternatives), Antero Resources (Oil & Gas Production, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Antero Resources are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 22 (worse than 78% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 48), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 26), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 8, is a sell recommendation based on Antero Resources's financial characteristics. As the company Antero Resources's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 22), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 48), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 26), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Antero Resources
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 32 |
|
65 |
|
33 |
|
22 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 53 |
|
75 |
|
3 |
|
48 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 1 |
|
19 |
|
50 |
|
26 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
19 |
|
8 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
33 |
|
6 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 8 (worse than 92% compared with investment alternatives), Antero Resources (Oil & Gas Production, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Antero Resources are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 22 (worse than 78% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 48), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 26), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 8, is a sell recommendation based on Antero Resources's financial characteristics. As the company Antero Resources's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 22), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 48), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 26), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 32 |
|
65 |
|
33 |
|
22 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 53 |
|
75 |
|
3 |
|
48 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 1 |
|
19 |
|
50 |
|
26 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 9 |
|
53 |
|
4 |
|
8 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 22 (worse than 78% compared with alternatives), Antero Resources shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where the majority of metrics are below, and only one is above average for Antero Resources. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 54, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than 54% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning to Antero Resources's revenue size. But all other performance indicators point in a different direction. Dividend yields have a Dividend Yield rank of 1, meaning that dividends are expected to be lower than for 99% of comparable investments. Furthermore, Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than 59% of alternatives (only 41% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E), which is higher than for 78% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 22, is a sell recommendation based on Antero Resources's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since Price-to-Sales is a stable value indicator even in challenging times, investing in Antero Resources could be seen as a value investment. However, there must be a good reason for the low market-to-book rank. If the company has a typical capital investment practice, the stock may be overvalued because the profit and dividend-related performance indicators are also low. The stock is only good value if investors can expect profits and dividends to pick up in the future. Else, Antero Resources looks like an expensive investment today. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 79 |
|
90 |
|
72 |
|
54 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 3 |
|
66 |
|
20 |
|
22 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 63 |
|
75 |
|
67 |
|
41 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 32 |
|
65 |
|
33 |
|
22 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 48 (better than 48% compared with alternatives), Antero Resources shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Antero Resources. Sales Growth has a rank of 61 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 61% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 86. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 49, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 51% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 4, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 48, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 86% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 79 |
|
67 |
|
48 |
|
61 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 1 |
|
68 |
|
20 |
|
4 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
36 |
|
10 |
|
49 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 92 |
|
73 |
|
9 |
|
86 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 53 |
|
75 |
|
3 |
|
48 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 26 (better than 26% compared with alternatives), the company Antero Resources has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Antero Resources is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Antero Resources and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 71 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 71% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 14, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 86% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 29, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 71% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 26 (worse than 74% compared with alternatives), Antero Resources has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of Antero Resources are on the safer side. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge and liquidity issues with Antero Resources and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 6 |
|
73 |
|
84 |
|
71 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 1 |
|
11 |
|
12 |
|
14 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 6 |
|
9 |
|
55 |
|
29 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 1 |
|
19 |
|
50 |
|
26 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
46 |
|
32 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
12 |
|
10 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
65 |
|
8 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
8 |
|
5 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
19 |
|
8 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Antero Resources from December 19, 2024.
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