Fact based stock research
Aozora Bank (TSE:8304)

JP3711200000

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Aozora Bank stock research in summary

aozorabank.co.jp

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 30 (worse than 70% compared with investment alternatives), Aozora Bank (Diversified Banks, Japan) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Aozora Bank are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 45 (worse than 55% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 49), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 34), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 30, is a hold recommendation based on Aozora Bank's financial characteristics. As the company Aozora Bank's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 45), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 49), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 34), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	45
Growth Rank	49
Safety Rank	34
Combined Rank	30

Country	Japan
Industry	Diversified Banks
Index	Nikkei 225
Size class	Small

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Aozora Bank

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	69	55	28	45
GROWTH
GROWTH	39	67	41	49
SAFETY
SAFETY	71	8	24	34
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	1	1	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	7	6	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Aozora Bank is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	69	55	28	45
GROWTH
GROWTH	39	67	41	49
SAFETY
SAFETY	71	8	24	34
COMBINED
COMBINED	80	32	16	30

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Aozora Bank the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 45 (worse than 55% compared with alternatives), Aozora Bank shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators where three out of four are below average for Aozora Bank. Only the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) indicates good stock value with a Price-to-Book Rank of 65, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 65% of comparable investments. All other value indicators are below the market median. Price-to-Sales is 48 which means the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 52% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Aozora Bank's revenue levels. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 65 and for the dividend yields rank which is lower than for 59% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 45, is a hold recommendation based on Aozora Bank's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Why are market participants paying such a high price for Aozora Bank, where three out of four value indicators are below par? One reason could be that the company is well financed, indicated by the high book capital level, and has a promising future that is not yet visible in reported revenues and profits. That would also explain the low dividend yield because the company needs the cash to invest in its future. If investors can verify a picture in this sense, the stock may still be a good investment, even though current company-reported financials don't fully explain current stock prices. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	50	49	46	48
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	56	57	17	34
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	78	52	37	65
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	68	65	70	41
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	69	55	28	45

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Aozora Bank; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 49 (better than 49% compared with alternatives), Aozora Bank shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Aozora Bank. Sales Growth has a rank of 93, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 93% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 98 is also above average. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 1, and Stock Returns with 3 are also below-average. Stock returns for Aozora Bank have recently been below 97% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Are investors forecasting troubles based on the lack of operating investment activity at the company? This could be one explanation as to why stock returns are low. But stock returns can also be the result of correcting an error in the past, in this case, an overly optimistic outlook on the future, which is now more realistic. The Value Ranks may confirm such a picture. The more important growth indicators are revenues and profits, which are both above average for Aozora Bank. This is a positive sign from the company's operational side and may give investors courage, despite the poor recent stock price performance. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with the Obermatt Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	15	50	17	93
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	55	31	100	98
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	83	11	1
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	68	81	65	3
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	39	67	41	49

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Aozora Bank.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 34 (better than 34% compared with alternatives), the company Aozora Bank has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Aozora Bank is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Aozora Bank and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 88 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 88% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 49, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 51% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 1, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 99% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 34 (worse than 66% compared with alternatives), Aozora Bank has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of Aozora Bank are on the safer side. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge and liquidity issues with Aozora Bank and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	64	37	62	88
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	36	50	39	49
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	89	1	15	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	71	8	24	34

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Aozora Bank and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	28	5	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	23	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	33	4	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	20	7	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	1	1	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Aozora Bank.
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