Fact based stock research
Arch (NYSE:ARCH)
US03940R1077
How to read the free ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Arch stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 54 (better than 54% compared with investment alternatives), Arch (Coal & Consumable Fuels, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Arch are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 43 (worse than 57% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 29) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 90), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 54, is a buy recommendation based on Arch's financial characteristics. As the company Arch's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 43) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 29), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 90) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Coal & Consumable Fuels |
| Index | Low Emissions, Energy Efficient |
| Size class | Large |
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Arch
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 6 |
|
65 |
|
53 |
|
43 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 35 |
|
87 |
|
15 |
|
29 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 41 |
|
25 |
|
92 |
|
90 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
35 |
|
66 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
53 |
|
60 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 54 (better than 54% compared with investment alternatives), Arch (Coal & Consumable Fuels, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Arch are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 43 (worse than 57% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 29) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 90), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 54, is a buy recommendation based on Arch's financial characteristics. As the company Arch's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 43) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 29), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 90) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 6 |
|
65 |
|
53 |
|
43 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 35 |
|
87 |
|
15 |
|
29 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 41 |
|
25 |
|
92 |
|
90 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 6 |
|
63 |
|
51 |
|
54 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 43 (worse than 57% compared with alternatives), Arch shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half are above average for Arch. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 50, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 50% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Arch's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 75% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 26 (dividends are expected to be higher than for 26% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 66% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for Arch to 34. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 43, is a hold recommendation based on Arch's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner on assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities, or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the low Dividend Yield is also explained as such companies tend to invest their income into market development. The other good value ranks for Sales and Profits are encouraging indicators for the stock price value. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 71 |
|
77 |
|
57 |
|
50 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 11 |
|
97 |
|
75 |
|
75 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 8 |
|
28 |
|
39 |
|
34 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
27 |
|
27 |
|
26 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 6 |
|
65 |
|
53 |
|
43 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 29 (better than 29% compared with alternatives), Arch shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Arch. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 35, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 65% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 44, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 15. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 85% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 65, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 65% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 29, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Arch, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 18 |
|
78 |
|
10 |
|
35 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 53 |
|
76 |
|
22 |
|
15 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
55 |
|
43 |
|
44 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 82 |
|
59 |
|
75 |
|
65 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 35 |
|
87 |
|
15 |
|
29 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 90 (better than 90% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Arch has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Arch is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Arch. Leverage is at 86, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 86% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 86, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 86% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 88, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 88% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 90 (better than 90% compared with alternatives), Arch has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. Investors may not have a debt issue with Arch but they should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 34 |
|
34 |
|
90 |
|
86 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 90 |
|
85 |
|
82 |
|
86 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 6 |
|
6 |
|
86 |
|
88 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 41 |
|
25 |
|
92 |
|
90 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
68 |
|
97 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
75 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
20 |
|
22 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
26 |
|
36 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
35 |
|
66 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Arch from November 14, 2024.
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