Fact based stock research
Aritzia (TSX:ATZ)

CA04045U1021

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Aritzia stock research in summary

aritzia.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 43 (worse than 57% compared with investment alternatives), Aritzia (Apparel Retail, Canada) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Aritzia are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 11 (worse than 89% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 35, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 93). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 43, is a hold recommendation based on Aritzia's financial characteristics. As the company Aritzia shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 11 (89% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 93% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 93). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 35 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Aritzia, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	11
Growth Rank	93
Safety Rank	35
Combined Rank	43

Country	Canada
Industry	Apparel Retail
Index	TSX Composite
Size class	Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Aritzia

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	6	1	20	11
GROWTH
GROWTH	97	100	35	93
SAFETY
SAFETY	36	16	26	35
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	51	66	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	29	19	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 1-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Aritzia is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	6	1	20	11
GROWTH
GROWTH	97	100	35	93
SAFETY
SAFETY	36	16	26	35
COMBINED
COMBINED	36	25	6	43

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Aritzia the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 11 (worse than 89% compared with alternatives), Aritzia shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Aritzia. Price-to-Sales is 23 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 77% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Aritzia's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 27, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Aritzia. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 45 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 11, is a sell recommendation based on Aritzia's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Aritzia? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Aritzia? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Aritzia may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	6	1	23	23
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	34	3	43	45
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	6	11	40	27
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	6	1	20	11

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Aritzia; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 93 (better than 93% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Aritzia shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Aritzia. Sales Growth has a rank of 98 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 98% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 96, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 99, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 9, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 91% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 93, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	65	93	94	98
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	83	29	96
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	74	29	9
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	86	93	17	99
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	97	100	35	93

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Aritzia.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 35 (better than 35% compared with alternatives), the company Aritzia has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Aritzia is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Aritzia. Liquidity is at 49, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 51% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 42, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 58% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 28 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 72% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 35 (worse than 65% compared with alternatives), Aritzia has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Aritzia because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	58	26	33	42
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	29	20	22	28
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	56	30	52	49
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	36	16	26	35

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Aritzia and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	88	46	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	4	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	7	42	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	92	89	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	51	66	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Aritzia.
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