Fact based stock research
Arrow Financial (NasdaqGS:AROW)

US0427441029

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Arrow Financial stock research in summary

arrowfinancial.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 53 (better than 53% compared with investment alternatives), Arrow Financial (Regional Banks, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Arrow Financial are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 33 (worse than 67% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 47) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 71), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 53, is a buy recommendation based on Arrow Financial's financial characteristics. As the company Arrow Financial's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 33) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 47), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 71) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	n/a
Growth Rank	n/a
Safety Rank	n/a
Combined Rank	n/a

Country	USA
Industry	Regional Banks
Index	Sound Pay USA, NASDAQ
Size class	X-Small

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

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Research History: Arrow Financial

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	42	27	40	n/a
GROWTH
GROWTH	32	39	51	n/a
SAFETY
SAFETY	71	68	78	n/a
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	52	14	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	41	39	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: . Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: . Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Arrow Financial is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	42	27	40	n/a
GROWTH
GROWTH	32	39	51	n/a
SAFETY
SAFETY	71	68	78	n/a
COMBINED
COMBINED	39	37	67	n/a

Last update of combined financial performance: . Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Arrow Financial the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 33 (worse than 67% compared with alternatives), Arrow Financial shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Arrow Financial. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 50 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 50% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Arrow Financial's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 19, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 19% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 66% of alternatives (only 34% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 23% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 33, is a hold recommendation based on Arrow Financial's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	33	37	44	n/a
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	57	50	51	n/a
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	27	20	22	n/a
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	67	59	58	n/a
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	42	27	40	n/a

Last update of Value Rank: . Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Arrow Financial; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 47 (better than 47% compared with alternatives), Arrow Financial shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Arrow Financial. Sales Growth has a rank of 90 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 90% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 8% of competitors with a rank of 61. But Profit Growth only has a rank of 8, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 92% of its competitors. And Stock Returns have also been below average with a rank of only 29. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 47, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Profits are sometimes low if the company invests in the future. The positive revenue and capital investment outlook confirms such an interpretation. Both revenues and capital are solid growth indicators, and lower profits in such a case would be encouraging. But the investors see it differently by punishing the share price. Sometimes, Mister Market is not very reliable, because it is not uncommon for it to be volatile. Investors should look out for signs of growth expenditure that could justify low profit growth, and they may also find reasons why recent stock price developments don't confirm the growth outlook of operations. While operating growth indicators are not perfect, they are more reliable indicators for future performance than stock prices that can repeatedly surprise investors. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	47	32	92	n/a
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	39	39	8	n/a
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	73	59	n/a
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	18	31	35	n/a
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	32	39	51	n/a

Last update of Growth Rank: . Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Arrow Financial.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 71 (better than 71% compared with alternatives), the company Arrow Financial has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Arrow Financial is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Arrow Financial. Leverage is at a rank of 84, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 84% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 73, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 73% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 21, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 79% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 71 (better than 71% compared with alternatives), Arrow Financial has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Arrow Financial. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Arrow Financial and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	76	74	85	n/a
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	43	43	26	n/a
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	71	63	69	n/a
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	71	68	78	n/a

Last update of Safety Rank: . Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Arrow Financial and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	1	34	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	88	16	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	48	35	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	52	14	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: . Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Arrow Financial.
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