Fact based stock research
Arvinas (NasdaqGS:ARVN)
US04335A1051
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Arvinas stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 53 (better than 53% compared with investment alternatives), Arvinas (Pharmaceuticals, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Arvinas are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 46 (worse than 54% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 13) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 74), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 53, is a buy recommendation based on Arvinas's financial characteristics. As the company Arvinas's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 46) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 13), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 74) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Pharmaceuticals |
| Index | NASDAQ |
| Size class | X-Small |
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Arvinas
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
|
43 |
|
14 |
|
46 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 31 |
|
39 |
|
69 |
|
13 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 17 |
|
59 |
|
50 |
|
74 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
57 |
|
65 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
57 |
|
40 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 53 (better than 53% compared with investment alternatives), Arvinas (Pharmaceuticals, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Arvinas are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 46 (worse than 54% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 13) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 74), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 53, is a buy recommendation based on Arvinas's financial characteristics. As the company Arvinas's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 46) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 13), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 74) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
|
43 |
|
14 |
|
46 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 31 |
|
39 |
|
69 |
|
13 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 17 |
|
59 |
|
50 |
|
74 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 19 |
|
40 |
|
49 |
|
53 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 46 (worse than 54% compared with alternatives), Arvinas shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators where three out of four are below average for Arvinas. Only the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) indicates good stock value with a Price-to-Book Rank of 54, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 54% of comparable investments. All other value indicators are below the market median. Price-to-Sales is 36 which means the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 64% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Arvinas's revenue levels. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 54 and for the dividend yields rank which is lower than for 99% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 46, is a hold recommendation based on Arvinas's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Why are market participants paying such a high price for Arvinas, where three out of four value indicators are below par? One reason could be that the company is well financed, indicated by the high book capital level, and has a promising future that is not yet visible in reported revenues and profits. That would also explain the low dividend yield because the company needs the cash to invest in its future. If investors can verify a picture in this sense, the stock may still be a good investment, even though current company-reported financials don't fully explain current stock prices. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 11 |
|
9 |
|
11 |
|
36 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 1 |
|
2 |
|
29 |
|
29 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 41 |
|
69 |
|
24 |
|
54 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 1 |
|
43 |
|
14 |
|
46 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 13 (better than 13% compared with alternatives), Arvinas shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Arvinas. While Profit Growth has a good rank of 63, as professionals currently expect the company to grow its profits more than 63% of its competitors, all other growth indicators are below market averages. Sales Growth has a rank of 6, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 94% of its competitors, while Capital Growth has a rank of 49 and Stock Returns have been below market median, with a rank of 15 (85% of alternative investments were better). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 13, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. While revenue growth and capital growth are good growth momentum indicators, profit is less reliable, because profits may increase due to cost-cutting measures which typically indicate negative growth momentum. "You can save a dollar only once" is the saying about such situations. Growth Investors should look at company priorities closely if they are interested in growth, because the increase in profits is not usually an indicator of growth, and stock prices have been below market, too. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 19 |
|
93 |
|
23 |
|
6 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | n/a |
|
21 |
|
47 |
|
63 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
25 |
|
76 |
|
49 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 90 |
|
43 |
|
73 |
|
15 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 31 |
|
39 |
|
69 |
|
13 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 74 (better than 74% compared with alternatives), the company Arvinas has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Arvinas is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators where two out of three are above average for Arvinas.Leverage is at 70, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 70% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 77, meaning that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 77% of its competitors. Liquidity is at 33, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 67% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side regarding debt service. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 74 (better than 74% compared with alternatives), Arvinas has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. Low leverage and low refinancing risk mean a safer financing situation. However, low liquidity means that current company cash flows are low in relation to the level of debt. This is a sign of caution in case it is expected for profits to remain low. Investors should compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before deciding. They may also want to investigate why cash flows are expected to be low, making debt service for Arvinas more challenging. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 78 |
|
71 |
|
72 |
|
70 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 24 |
|
77 |
|
61 |
|
77 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 8 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
33 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 17 |
|
59 |
|
50 |
|
74 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
85 |
|
89 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
66 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
51 |
|
49 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
24 |
|
26 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
57 |
|
65 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Arvinas from December 19, 2024.
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