Fact based stock research
ATSG (NasdaqGS:ATSG)
US00922R1059
How to read the free ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
ATSG stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 16 (worse than 84% compared with investment alternatives), ATSG (Air Freight & Logistics, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of ATSG are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 43 (worse than 57% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 33), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 35), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 16, is a sell recommendation based on ATSG's financial characteristics. As the company ATSG's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 43), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 33), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 35), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Air Freight & Logistics |
| Index | Sound Pay USA, NASDAQ |
| Size class | Large |
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: ATSG
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 51 |
|
41 |
|
53 |
|
43 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 31 |
|
18 |
|
3 |
|
33 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 38 |
|
32 |
|
43 |
|
35 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
53 |
|
51 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
12 |
|
14 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 16 (worse than 84% compared with investment alternatives), ATSG (Air Freight & Logistics, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of ATSG are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 43 (worse than 57% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 33), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 35), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 16, is a sell recommendation based on ATSG's financial characteristics. As the company ATSG's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 43), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 33), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 35), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 51 |
|
41 |
|
53 |
|
43 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 31 |
|
18 |
|
3 |
|
33 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 38 |
|
32 |
|
43 |
|
35 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 28 |
|
8 |
|
10 |
|
16 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 43 (worse than 57% compared with alternatives), ATSG shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for ATSG. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 57, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 57% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning ATSG's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio), which is more favorable than for 81% of alternatives (19% of peers have a higher ratio). But expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 are lower than average (dividends are expected to be lower than 99% of other stocks) while the Price to Profit ratio (or Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio) is higher than average with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 37, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 43, is a hold recommendation based on ATSG's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Low profits and low dividends as seen here for ATSG may indicate a restructuring phase. This could be transitory, making the company a good value when profits recover and dividends return to higher levels. If the stock price is compared with the size indicators for revenue and invested capital, it is on the lower side, making this stock a good value investment (apart from current profit and dividend expectations). We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 66 |
|
47 |
|
67 |
|
57 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 88 |
|
52 |
|
66 |
|
37 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 51 |
|
64 |
|
79 |
|
81 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 51 |
|
41 |
|
53 |
|
43 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 33 (better than 33% compared with alternatives), ATSG shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for ATSG. Capital Growth has a rank of 50, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 24% of its competitors. Investors welcomed this, visible in the Stock Returns rank of 75 (above 75% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has only a rank of 23, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 77% of its competitors, and Profit Growth is also low at a rank of 24. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 33, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is an ambiguous picture. Revenue growth and capital growth are strong, but the growth in profit, which seems good, can also be an indication that growth momentum may be negative. The fact that stock returns have been above average doesn't help much, as stock returns are less reliable in showing a company’s future growth potential. Prices may perform well for the simple reason that investors were too pessimistic in the past and are now correcting their opinions and moving the stock price to a more reasonable level. As the growth picture is mixed for ATSG, investors may want to look at value and sentiment indicators for a well-rounded picture of this stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 33 |
|
32 |
|
21 |
|
23 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 50 |
|
12 |
|
36 |
|
24 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
69 |
|
11 |
|
50 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 37 |
|
39 |
|
7 |
|
75 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 31 |
|
18 |
|
3 |
|
33 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 35 (better than 35% compared with alternatives), the company ATSG has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of ATSG is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for ATSG. Liquidity is at 41, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 59% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 42, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 58% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 36 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 64% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 35 (worse than 65% compared with alternatives), ATSG has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of ATSG because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 31 |
|
32 |
|
42 |
|
42 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 51 |
|
25 |
|
35 |
|
36 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 50 |
|
64 |
|
51 |
|
41 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 38 |
|
32 |
|
43 |
|
35 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
98 |
|
85 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
3 |
|
45 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
36 |
|
23 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
53 |
|
51 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for ATSG from November 14, 2024.
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