Fact based stock research
Alamos Gold (TSX:AGI)

CA0115321089

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Alamos Gold stock research in summary

alamosgold.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 37 (worse than 63% compared with investment alternatives), Alamos Gold (Gold Production, Canada) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Alamos Gold are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 14 (worse than 86% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 35, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 81). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 37, is a hold recommendation based on Alamos Gold's financial characteristics. As the company Alamos Gold shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 14 (86% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 81% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 81). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 35 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Alamos Gold, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	14
Growth Rank	81
Safety Rank	35
Combined Rank	37

Country	Canada
Industry	Gold Production
Index	Human Rights, Gold, TSX Composite
Size class	Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Alamos Gold

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	49	29	10	14
GROWTH
GROWTH	48	37	79	81
SAFETY
SAFETY	93	88	88	35
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	55	90	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	25	86	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Alamos Gold is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	49	29	10	14
GROWTH
GROWTH	48	37	79	81
SAFETY
SAFETY	93	88	88	35
COMBINED
COMBINED	81	49	63	37

Last update of combined financial performance: 4-Jul-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Alamos Gold the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 14 (worse than 86% compared with alternatives), Alamos Gold shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Alamos Gold. Price-to-Sales is 11 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 89% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Alamos Gold's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 25, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Alamos Gold. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 34 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 65% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 14, is a sell recommendation based on Alamos Gold's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Alamos Gold? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Alamos Gold? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Alamos Gold may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	30	22	13	11
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	30	29	19	34
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	80	79	24	25
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	60	43	38	35
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	49	29	10	14

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Alamos Gold; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 81 (better than 81% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Alamos Gold shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for Alamos Gold. Sales Growth has a value of 62, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 62% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 59 and for Capital Growth with 91. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 63, which means they have been higher than 63% of comparable investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 81, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, Alamos Gold exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	60	46	22	62
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	44	31	83	59
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	57	77	91
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	14	41	81	63
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	48	37	79	81

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Alamos Gold.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 35 (better than 35% compared with alternatives), the company Alamos Gold has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Alamos Gold is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Alamos Gold and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 96 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 96% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 25, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 75% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 5, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 95% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 35 (worse than 65% compared with alternatives), Alamos Gold has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of Alamos Gold are on the safer side. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge and liquidity issues with Alamos Gold and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	76	94	96	96
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	72	25	33	25
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	83	100	98	5
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	93	88	88	35

Last update of Safety Rank: 4-Jul-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Alamos Gold and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	48	57	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	26	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	36	100	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	92	96	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	55	90	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Alamos Gold.
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