Fact based stock research
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings (NYSE:BJ)
US05550J1016
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
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BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 7 (worse than 93% compared with investment alternatives), BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings (Hypermarkets, Super Centers, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 47), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 47), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 7, is a sell recommendation based on BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings's financial characteristics. As the company BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 17), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 47), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 47), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Hypermarkets, Super Centers |
| Index | S&P US Food & Beverage, S&P MIDCAP |
| Size class | XX-Large |
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 25 |
|
25 |
|
28 |
|
17 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 79 |
|
43 |
|
25 |
|
47 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 42 |
|
11 |
|
41 |
|
47 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
63 |
|
61 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
15 |
|
21 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 7 (worse than 93% compared with investment alternatives), BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings (Hypermarkets, Super Centers, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 47), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 47), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 7, is a sell recommendation based on BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings's financial characteristics. As the company BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 17), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 47), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 47), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 25 |
|
25 |
|
28 |
|
17 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 79 |
|
43 |
|
25 |
|
47 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 42 |
|
11 |
|
41 |
|
47 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 45 |
|
1 |
|
6 |
|
7 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% compared with alternatives), BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings. Price-to-Sales is 48 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 52% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 23, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 36 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 17, is a sell recommendation based on BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 76 |
|
70 |
|
62 |
|
48 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 60 |
|
45 |
|
58 |
|
36 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 4 |
|
11 |
|
22 |
|
23 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 25 |
|
25 |
|
28 |
|
17 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 47 (better than 47% compared with alternatives), BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings. Sales Growth has a rank of 68 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 68% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 57. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 39, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 61% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 42, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 47, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 57% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 65 |
|
57 |
|
32 |
|
68 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | n/a |
|
29 |
|
34 |
|
42 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
16 |
|
36 |
|
39 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 90 |
|
83 |
|
51 |
|
57 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 79 |
|
43 |
|
25 |
|
47 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 47 (better than 47% compared with alternatives), the company BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings. Leverage is at a rank of 53, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 53% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 74, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 74% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 16, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 84% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 47 (worse than 53% compared with alternatives), BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 46 |
|
18 |
|
43 |
|
53 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 42 |
|
5 |
|
15 |
|
16 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 49 |
|
65 |
|
78 |
|
74 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 42 |
|
11 |
|
41 |
|
47 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
46 |
|
61 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
64 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
27 |
|
74 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
78 |
|
46 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
63 |
|
61 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings from November 14, 2024.
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