Fact based stock research
Ampol (ASX:CTX)

AU0000088338

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Ampol stock research in summary

ampol.com.au

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 17 (worse than 83% compared with investment alternatives), Ampol (Oil & Gas Refining, Australia) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Ampol are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 77 (better than 77% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 1), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 19), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 17, is a sell recommendation based on Ampol's financial characteristics. As the company Ampol's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 77) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 1) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 19), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 77% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	77
Growth Rank	1
Safety Rank	19
Combined Rank	17

Country	Australia
Industry	Oil & Gas Refining
Index	ASX 100, ASX 200, ASX 300, ASX 50, Energy Efficient
Size class	XX-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Ampol

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	76	77	76	77
GROWTH
GROWTH	50	91	27	1
SAFETY
SAFETY	76	32	18	19
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	52	42	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	85	24	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Ampol is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	76	77	76	77
GROWTH
GROWTH	50	91	27	1
SAFETY
SAFETY	76	32	18	19
COMBINED
COMBINED	58	94	32	17

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Ampol the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 77 (better than 77% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Ampol shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Ampol. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 94, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 94% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Ampol's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 53% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 92 (dividends are expected to be higher than 92% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 77% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for Ampol to 23. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 77, is a buy recommendation based on Ampol's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner in assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the three good value ranks for Sales, Profits, and Dividends are reliable indicators for the stock price value. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	85	91	89	94
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	65	46	67	53
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	28	26	23	23
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	74	88	90	92
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	76	77	76	77

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Ampol; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 1 (better than 1% compared with alternatives), Ampol shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for Ampol. Sales Growth has a rank of 4, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 96% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 10, and Capital Growth with 34. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 31, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 69% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	64	79	8	4
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	8	61	44	10
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	87	27	34
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	32	61	83	31
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	50	91	27	1

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Ampol.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 19 (better than 19% compared with alternatives), the company Ampol has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Ampol is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Ampol. Liquidity is at 29, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 71% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 12, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 88% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 39 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 61% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 19 (worse than 81% compared with alternatives), Ampol has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Ampol because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	50	42	14	12
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	84	33	35	39
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	50	24	26	29
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	76	32	18	19

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Ampol and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	3	53	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	63	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	100	42	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	58	64	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	52	42	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Ampol.
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