Fact based stock research
Carvana (NYSE:CVNA)

US1468691027

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Carvana stock research in summary

carvana.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 16 (worse than 84% compared with investment alternatives), Carvana (Automotive Retail, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Carvana are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 10, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 95). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 16, is a sell recommendation based on Carvana's financial characteristics. As the company Carvana shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 1 (99% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 95% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 95). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 10 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Carvana, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	1
Growth Rank	95
Safety Rank	10
Combined Rank	16

Country	USA
Industry	Automotive Retail
Index
Size class	X-Large

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Carvana

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	3	13	13	1
GROWTH
GROWTH	93	23	100	95
SAFETY
SAFETY	7	19	7	10
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	13	5	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	1	4	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Carvana is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	3	13	13	1
GROWTH
GROWTH	93	23	100	95
SAFETY
SAFETY	7	19	7	10
COMBINED
COMBINED	25	1	15	16

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Carvana the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with alternatives), Carvana shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Carvana. Price-to-Sales is 5 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 95% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Carvana's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 1, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Carvana. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 8 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation based on Carvana's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Carvana? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Carvana? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Carvana may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	28	19	24	5
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	2	4	4	8
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	4	6	1	1
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	3	13	13	1

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Carvana; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 95 (better than 95% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Carvana shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Carvana. Sales Growth has a rank of 98 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 98% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 19% of competitors with a rank of 92, and Stock Returns with the rank of 100 is also an outperformance. Only Profit Growth is low with a rank of 19 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 81% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 95, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. All three operating growth indicators, namely revenue, profit, and capital growth, are showing improvements. This is a good indication of a company with a positive future. That might, at the same time, be the simple reason why profit growth is low. A growing company needs money and thus can't yet show high profit growth. Look out for signs in corporate communication about extra growth efforts costing time and money. If that is the case, Carvana is a good growth stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	98	90	78	98
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	25	96	19
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	1	80	92
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	76	15	100	100
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	93	23	100	95

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Carvana.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 10 (better than 10% compared with alternatives), the company Carvana has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Carvana is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Carvana. Liquidity is at 23, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 77% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 6, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 94% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 41 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 59% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 10 (worse than 90% compared with alternatives), Carvana has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Carvana because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	35	21	6	6
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	59	44	44	41
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	12	20	20	23
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	7	19	7	10

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Carvana and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	48	3	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	53	54	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	35	15	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	6	14	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	13	5	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Carvana.
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