Fact based stock research
Casey's (NasdaqGS:CASY)

US1475281036

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Casey's stock research in summary

caseys.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 77 (better than 77% compared with investment alternatives), Casey's (Food Retail, USA) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Casey's are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 81) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 94, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 77, is a strong buy recommendation based on Casey's's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Casey's exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 17), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 81). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 94) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	17
Growth Rank	81
Safety Rank	94
Combined Rank	77

Country	USA
Industry	Food Retail
Index	Employee Focus US, Diversity USA, SDG 11, SDG 2, SDG 4, SDG 7, SDG 8, NASDAQ, S&P US Food & Beverage, S&P MIDCAP
Size class	XX-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Casey's

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	40	27	31	17
GROWTH
GROWTH	65	11	49	81
SAFETY
SAFETY	39	84	88	94
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	31	67	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	19	63	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 31-Jul-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Casey's is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	40	27	31	17
GROWTH
GROWTH	65	11	49	81
SAFETY
SAFETY	39	84	88	94
COMBINED
COMBINED	34	23	57	77

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Casey's the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% compared with alternatives), Casey's shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Casey's. Price-to-Sales is 30 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 70% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Casey's's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 26, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Casey's. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 22 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 58% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 17, is a sell recommendation based on Casey's's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Casey's? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Casey's? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Casey's may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	49	57	44	30
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	50	26	35	22
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	26	44	33	26
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	38	42	47	42
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	40	27	31	17

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Casey's; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 81 (better than 81% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Casey's shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Casey's. Sales Growth has a rank of 83 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 83% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 65, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 81, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 32, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 68% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 81, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	87	41	76	83
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	13	34	46	65
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	17	35	32
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	57	45	61	81
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	65	11	49	81

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Casey's.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 94 (better than 94% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Casey's has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Casey's is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Casey's. Leverage is at a rank of 76, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 76% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 76, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 76% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 45, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 55% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 94 (better than 94% compared with alternatives), Casey's has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Casey's. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Casey's and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	62	66	72	76
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	24	33	47	45
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	73	78	76	76
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	39	84	88	94

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Casey's and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	56	73	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	61	99	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	25	45	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	34	32	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	31	67	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Casey's.
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