Fact based stock research
Century Aluminum (NasdaqGS:CENX)
US1564311082
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
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Century Aluminum stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 29 (worse than 71% compared with investment alternatives), Century Aluminum (Aluminum, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Century Aluminum are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 24 (worse than 76% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 6, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 95). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 29, is a hold recommendation based on Century Aluminum's financial characteristics. As the company Century Aluminum shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 24 (76% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 95% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 95). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 6 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Century Aluminum, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Aluminum |
| Index | Low Emissions, NASDAQ |
| Size class | Large |
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Century Aluminum
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 19 |
|
37 |
|
10 |
|
24 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 31 |
|
41 |
|
80 |
|
95 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 30 |
|
1 |
|
4 |
|
6 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
1 |
|
10 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
5 |
|
12 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 29 (worse than 71% compared with investment alternatives), Century Aluminum (Aluminum, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Century Aluminum are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 24 (worse than 76% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 6, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 95). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 29, is a hold recommendation based on Century Aluminum's financial characteristics. As the company Century Aluminum shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 24 (76% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 95% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 95). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 6 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Century Aluminum, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 19 |
|
37 |
|
10 |
|
24 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 31 |
|
41 |
|
80 |
|
95 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 30 |
|
1 |
|
4 |
|
6 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 12 |
|
10 |
|
14 |
|
29 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 24 (worse than 76% compared with alternatives), Century Aluminum shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where the majority of metrics are below, and only one is above average for Century Aluminum. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 75, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than 75% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning to Century Aluminum's revenue size. But all other performance indicators point in a different direction. Dividend yields have a Dividend Yield rank of 1, meaning that dividends are expected to be lower than for 99% of comparable investments. Furthermore, Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than 80% of alternatives (only 20% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E), which is higher than for 64% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 24, is a sell recommendation based on Century Aluminum's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since Price-to-Sales is a stable value indicator even in challenging times, investing in Century Aluminum could be seen as a value investment. However, there must be a good reason for the low market-to-book rank. If the company has a typical capital investment practice, the stock may be overvalued because the profit and dividend-related performance indicators are also low. The stock is only good value if investors can expect profits and dividends to pick up in the future. Else, Century Aluminum looks like an expensive investment today. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 91 |
|
77 |
|
89 |
|
75 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 4 |
|
89 |
|
1 |
|
36 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 18 |
|
10 |
|
5 |
|
20 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 19 |
|
37 |
|
10 |
|
24 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 95 (better than 95% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Century Aluminum shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Century Aluminum. Sales Growth has a rank of 57 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 57% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 93, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 100, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 48, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 52% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 95, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 29 |
|
88 |
|
55 |
|
57 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 1 |
|
1 |
|
30 |
|
93 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
33 |
|
82 |
|
48 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 68 |
|
65 |
|
81 |
|
100 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 31 |
|
41 |
|
80 |
|
95 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 6 (better than 6% compared with alternatives), the company Century Aluminum has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Century Aluminum is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Century Aluminum and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 53, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 53% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 8, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 92% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 19, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 81% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with alternatives), Century Aluminum has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for Century Aluminum are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Century Aluminum and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 10 |
|
31 |
|
8 |
|
8 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 70 |
|
6 |
|
21 |
|
53 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 22 |
|
9 |
|
8 |
|
19 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 30 |
|
1 |
|
4 |
|
6 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
81 |
|
19 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
9 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
11 |
|
12 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
2 |
|
21 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
1 |
|
10 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Century Aluminum from November 14, 2024.
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