Fact based stock research
Certara (NasdaqGS:CERT)

US15687V1098

How to read the free ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Certara stock research in summary

certara.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 22 (worse than 78% compared with investment alternatives), Certara (Health Care Technology, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Certara are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 9) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 80), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 22, is a sell recommendation based on Certara's financial characteristics. As the company Certara's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 49) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 9), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 80) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	49
Growth Rank	9
Safety Rank	80
Combined Rank	22

Country	USA
Industry	Health Care Technology
Index	NASDAQ
Size class	Small

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Certara

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	n/a	27	27	49
GROWTH
GROWTH	n/a	51	31	9
SAFETY
SAFETY	n/a	71	73	80
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	71	22	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	51	29	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Certara is in the corresponding investment strategy.
Upgrade to a Premium Account to access the latest ranks.

Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	n/a	27	27	49
GROWTH
GROWTH	n/a	51	31	9
SAFETY
SAFETY	n/a	71	73	80
COMBINED
COMBINED	n/a	28	31	22

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Certara the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with alternatives), Certara shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Certara. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 65 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 65% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Certara's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 75, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 75% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than for 64% of alternatives (only 36% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than for 99% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation based on Certara's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high concerning expected revenues, the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting Group or BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than distribute it to shareholders through dividends, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	n/a	18	15	36
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	n/a	45	53	65
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	n/a	47	60	75
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	n/a	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	n/a	27	27	49

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Certara; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 9 (better than 9% compared with alternatives), Certara shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Certara. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 51, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 16% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 49 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 51% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 16 and Stock Returns with a rank of 15 are also low (below 85% of alternative investments). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 9, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for Certara is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	n/a	55	8	49
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	80	25	16
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	47	67	51
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	n/a	37	47	15
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	n/a	51	31	9

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Certara.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 80 (better than 80% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Certara has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Certara is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Certara. Leverage is at 50, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 50% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 75, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 75% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 66, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 66% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 80 (better than 80% compared with alternatives), Certara has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. Investors may not have a debt issue with Certara but they should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	n/a	52	54	50
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	n/a	65	63	75
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	n/a	52	69	66
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	n/a	71	73	80

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Certara and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	97	22	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	79	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	3	36	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	48	29	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	71	22	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Certara.
Upgrade to a Premium Account to access the latest ranks.