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CF Industries (NYSE:CF)

US1252691001

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

CF Industries stock research in summary

cfindustries.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 72 (better than 72% compared with investment alternatives), CF Industries (Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of CF Industries are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 87 (better than 87% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 81, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 19). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 72, is a buy recommendation based on CF Industries's financial characteristics. As the company CF Industries's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 87) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 19) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 81), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 87% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	87
Growth Rank	19
Safety Rank	81
Combined Rank	72

Country	USA
Industry	Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Index	Low Emissions, Employee Focus US, Human Rights, S&P 500
Size class	X-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: CF Industries

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	27	62	47	87
GROWTH
GROWTH	74	100	14	19
SAFETY
SAFETY	29	24	94	81
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	26	42	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	46	35	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better CF Industries is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	27	62	47	87
GROWTH
GROWTH	74	100	14	19
SAFETY
SAFETY	29	24	94	81
COMBINED
COMBINED	29	70	54	72

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of CF Industries the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 87 (better than 87% compared with alternatives) for 2024, CF Industries shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for CF Industries. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 68 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 68% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning CF Industries's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 40, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 40% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 62% of alternatives (only 38% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 12% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 87, is a buy recommendation based on CF Industries's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	27	44	17	38
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	26	97	77	68
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	14	40	47	40
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	82	62	63	88
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	27	62	47	87

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of CF Industries; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 19 (better than 19% compared with alternatives), CF Industries shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for CF Industries. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 66, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 22% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 4 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 96% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 22 and Stock Returns with a rank of 43 are also low (below 57% of alternative investments). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 19, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for CF Industries is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	52	96	10	4
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	13	82	32	22
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	96	63	66
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	72	90	30	43
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	74	100	14	19

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of CF Industries.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 81 (better than 81% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company CF Industries has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of CF Industries is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for CF Industries. Leverage is at a rank of 59, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 59% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 91, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 91% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 35, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 65% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 81 (better than 81% compared with alternatives), CF Industries has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for CF Industries. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with CF Industries and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	32	57	83	59
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	30	20	72	35
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	47	46	78	91
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	29	24	94	81

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of CF Industries and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	45	17	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	13	34	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	32	88	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	63	51	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	26	42	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for CF Industries.
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