Fact based stock research
Chipotle (NYSE:CMG)
US1696561059
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Chipotle stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 72 (better than 72% compared with investment alternatives), Chipotle (Restaurants, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Chipotle are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 97) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 80, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 72, is a buy recommendation based on Chipotle's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Chipotle exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 1), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 97). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 80) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Restaurants |
| Index | S&P US Luxury, S&P 500 |
| Size class | X-Large |
This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Chipotle
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 76 |
|
75 |
|
93 |
|
97 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 64 |
|
88 |
|
88 |
|
80 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
60 |
|
98 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
31 |
|
73 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 72 (better than 72% compared with investment alternatives), Chipotle (Restaurants, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Chipotle are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 97) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 80, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 72, is a buy recommendation based on Chipotle's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Chipotle exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 1), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 97). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 80) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 76 |
|
75 |
|
93 |
|
97 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 64 |
|
88 |
|
88 |
|
80 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 29 |
|
48 |
|
48 |
|
72 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with alternatives), Chipotle shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Chipotle. Price-to-Sales is 4 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 96% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Chipotle's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 6, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Chipotle. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 5 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation based on Chipotle's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Chipotle? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Chipotle? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Chipotle may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 7 |
|
7 |
|
5 |
|
4 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 29 |
|
23 |
|
12 |
|
5 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 8 |
|
1 |
|
6 |
|
6 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 97 (better than 97% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Chipotle shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for Chipotle. Sales Growth has a value of 92, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 92% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 76 and for Capital Growth with 80. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 89, which means they have been higher than 89% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 97, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, Chipotle exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 59 |
|
69 |
|
86 |
|
92 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 91 |
|
61 |
|
68 |
|
76 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
64 |
|
75 |
|
80 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 54 |
|
47 |
|
93 |
|
89 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 76 |
|
75 |
|
93 |
|
97 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 80 (better than 80% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Chipotle has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Chipotle is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators where two out of three are above average for Chipotle.Leverage is at 100, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 100% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 80, meaning that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 80% of its competitors. Liquidity is at 1, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 99% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side regarding debt service. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 80 (better than 80% compared with alternatives), Chipotle has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. Low leverage and low refinancing risk mean a safer financing situation. However, low liquidity means that current company cash flows are low in relation to the level of debt. This is a sign of caution in case it is expected for profits to remain low. Investors should compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before deciding. They may also want to investigate why cash flows are expected to be low, making debt service for Chipotle more challenging. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 80 |
|
100 |
|
100 |
|
100 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 22 |
|
57 |
|
74 |
|
80 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 59 |
|
68 |
|
68 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 64 |
|
88 |
|
88 |
|
80 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
63 |
|
81 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
49 |
|
62 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
28 |
|
70 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
78 |
|
93 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
60 |
|
98 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Chipotle from December 19, 2024.
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