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Churchill Downs (NasdaqGS:CHDN)
US1714841087
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
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Churchill Downs stock research in summary
churchilldownsincorporated.com
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 15 (worse than 85% compared with investment alternatives), Churchill Downs (Casinos & Gaming, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Churchill Downs are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 21 (worse than 79% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 33, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 61). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 15, is a sell recommendation based on Churchill Downs's financial characteristics. As the company Churchill Downs shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 21 (79% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 61% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 61). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 33 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Churchill Downs, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Casinos & Gaming |
| Index | NASDAQ, S&P MIDCAP |
| Size class | Large |
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Churchill Downs
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 46 |
|
19 |
|
16 |
|
21 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 100 |
|
89 |
|
67 |
|
61 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 71 |
|
48 |
|
24 |
|
33 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
66 |
|
68 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
66 |
|
36 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 15 (worse than 85% compared with investment alternatives), Churchill Downs (Casinos & Gaming, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Churchill Downs are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 21 (worse than 79% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 33, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 61). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 15, is a sell recommendation based on Churchill Downs's financial characteristics. As the company Churchill Downs shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 21 (79% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 61% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 61). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 33 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Churchill Downs, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 46 |
|
19 |
|
16 |
|
21 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 100 |
|
89 |
|
67 |
|
61 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 71 |
|
48 |
|
24 |
|
33 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 83 |
|
48 |
|
15 |
|
15 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 21 (worse than 79% compared with alternatives), Churchill Downs shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Churchill Downs. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 51 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 51% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Churchill Downs's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 21, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 21% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 87% of alternatives (only 13% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 43% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 21, is a sell recommendation based on Churchill Downs's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 33 |
|
13 |
|
9 |
|
13 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 62 |
|
43 |
|
34 |
|
51 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 1 |
|
5 |
|
19 |
|
21 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 71 |
|
73 |
|
64 |
|
57 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 46 |
|
19 |
|
16 |
|
21 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 61 (better than 61% compared with alternatives), Churchill Downs shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Churchill Downs. Sales Growth has a rank of 82 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 82% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 70, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 55, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 7, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 93% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 61, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 92 |
|
61 |
|
78 |
|
82 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 61 |
|
85 |
|
60 |
|
70 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
96 |
|
16 |
|
7 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 67 |
|
33 |
|
63 |
|
55 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 100 |
|
89 |
|
67 |
|
61 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 33 (better than 33% compared with alternatives), the company Churchill Downs has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Churchill Downs is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Churchill Downs. Liquidity is at 44, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 56% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 30, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 70% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 48 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 52% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 33 (worse than 67% compared with alternatives), Churchill Downs has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Churchill Downs because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 51 |
|
30 |
|
24 |
|
30 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 78 |
|
39 |
|
44 |
|
48 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 58 |
|
74 |
|
52 |
|
44 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 71 |
|
48 |
|
24 |
|
33 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
79 |
|
85 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
23 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
80 |
|
62 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
42 |
|
31 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
66 |
|
68 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Churchill Downs from December 19, 2024.
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