Fact based stock research
Ciena (NYSE:CIEN)

US1717793095

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Ciena stock research in summary

ciena.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 88 (better than 88% compared with investment alternatives), Ciena (Communications Equipment, USA) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Ciena are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 33 (worse than 67% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 91) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 67, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 88, is a strong buy recommendation based on Ciena's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Ciena exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 33), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 91). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 67) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	33
Growth Rank	91
Safety Rank	67
Combined Rank	88

Country	USA
Industry	Communications Equipment
Index	S&P MIDCAP
Size class	X-Large

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Ciena

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	30	37	44	33
GROWTH
GROWTH	35	73	61	91
SAFETY
SAFETY	77	88	70	67
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	71	54	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	89	70	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 27-Jul-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Ciena is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	30	37	44	33
GROWTH
GROWTH	35	73	61	91
SAFETY
SAFETY	77	88	70	67
COMBINED
COMBINED	63	88	76	88

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Ciena the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 33 (worse than 67% compared with alternatives), Ciena shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Ciena. Price-to-Sales is 45 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 55% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Ciena's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 42, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Ciena. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 38 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 33, is a hold recommendation based on Ciena's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Ciena? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Ciena? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Ciena may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	36	44	55	45
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	85	45	54	38
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	29	50	64	42
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	30	37	44	33

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Ciena; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 91 (better than 91% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Ciena shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for Ciena. Sales Growth has a value of 59, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 59% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 70 and for Capital Growth with 61. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 89, which means they have been higher than 89% of comparable investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 91, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, Ciena exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	38	35	60	59
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	56	41	56	70
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	70	68	61
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	61	83	35	89
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	35	73	61	91

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Ciena.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 67 (better than 67% compared with alternatives), the company Ciena has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Ciena is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above-average for Ciena. Refinancing is at 65, meaning the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 65% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at 58, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 58% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. However, Leverage is rather large at 38, which means the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 62% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 67 (better than 67% compared with alternatives), Ciena has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. This is not bad if things go well. The higher debt level means better returns to shareholders if things go well. Many top-performing companies operate with higher debt levels, and Ciena could be in that group. But if you expect the environment to turn rougher, the higher leverage could become a problem. The same is valid if you expect interest rates to rise. That could squeeze shareholder returns, which so far have benefitted from better conditions. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Ciena and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	61	64	38	38
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	53	63	77	65
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	84	80	44	58
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	77	88	70	67

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Ciena and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	81	89	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	57	1	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	7	30	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	84	71	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	71	54	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Ciena.
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