Fact based stock research
Citi Trends (NasdaqGS:CTRN)

US17306X1028

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Citi Trends stock research in summary

cititrends.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 33 (worse than 67% compared with investment alternatives), Citi Trends (Apparel Retail, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Citi Trends are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 41 (worse than 59% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 45), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 48), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 33, is a hold recommendation based on Citi Trends's financial characteristics. As the company Citi Trends's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 41), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 45), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 48), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	41
Growth Rank	45
Safety Rank	48
Combined Rank	33

Country	USA
Industry	Apparel Retail
Index	Sound Pay USA, NASDAQ
Size class	Medium

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Citi Trends

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	33	47	45	41
GROWTH
GROWTH	93	77	23	45
SAFETY
SAFETY	18	84	91	48
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	97	8	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	100	24	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 2-Nov-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Citi Trends is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	33	47	45	41
GROWTH
GROWTH	93	77	23	45
SAFETY
SAFETY	18	84	91	48
COMBINED
COMBINED	50	84	52	33

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Citi Trends the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 41 (worse than 59% compared with alternatives), Citi Trends shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for Citi Trends. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 67, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 67% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Citi Trends's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio), which is more favorable than for 56% of alternatives (44% of peers have a higher ratio). But expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 are lower than average (dividends are expected to be lower than 99% of other stocks) while the Price to Profit ratio (or Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio) is higher than average with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 8, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation based on Citi Trends's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Low profits and low dividends as seen here for Citi Trends may indicate a restructuring phase. This could be transitory, making the company a good value when profits recover and dividends return to higher levels. If the stock price is compared with the size indicators for revenue and invested capital, it is on the lower side, making this stock a good value investment (apart from current profit and dividend expectations). We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	67	68	73	67
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	74	75	8	8
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	24	44	64	56
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	33	47	45	41

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Citi Trends; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 45 (better than 45% compared with alternatives), Citi Trends shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Citi Trends. Sales Growth has a rank of 53 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 53% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 4% of competitors with a rank of 100. But Profit Growth only has a rank of 4, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 96% of its competitors. And Stock Returns have also been below average with a rank of only 45. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 45, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Profits are sometimes low if the company invests in the future. The positive revenue and capital investment outlook confirms such an interpretation. Both revenues and capital are solid growth indicators, and lower profits in such a case would be encouraging. But the investors see it differently by punishing the share price. Sometimes, Mister Market is not very reliable, because it is not uncommon for it to be volatile. Investors should look out for signs of growth expenditure that could justify low profit growth, and they may also find reasons why recent stock price developments don't confirm the growth outlook of operations. While operating growth indicators are not perfect, they are more reliable indicators for future performance than stock prices that can repeatedly surprise investors. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	80	51	35	53
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	65	65	6	4
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	98	75	100
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	96	31	31	45
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	93	77	23	45

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Citi Trends.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 48 (better than 48% compared with alternatives), the company Citi Trends has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Citi Trends is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators where two out of three are above average for Citi Trends.Leverage is at 100, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 100% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 53, meaning that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 53% of its competitors. Liquidity is at 1, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 99% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side regarding debt service. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 48 (worse than 52% compared with alternatives), Citi Trends has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. Low leverage and low refinancing risk mean a safer financing situation. However, low liquidity means that current company cash flows are low in relation to the level of debt. This is a sign of caution in case it is expected for profits to remain low. Investors should compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before deciding. They may also want to investigate why cash flows are expected to be low, making debt service for Citi Trends more challenging. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	46	100	100	100
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	13	18	68	53
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	45	93	79	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	18	84	91	48

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Citi Trends and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	88	67	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	96	1	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	81	1	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	52	23	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	97	8	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Citi Trends.
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