Fact based stock research
Cresud (BASE:CRES)
ARP331091024
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Cresud stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with investment alternatives), Cresud (Agricultural Products, Argentina) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Cresud are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 45 (worse than 55% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 14), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 16), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on Cresud's financial characteristics. As the company Cresud's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 45), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 14), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 16), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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Country | Argentina |
Industry | Agricultural Products |
Index | MERVAL, R/E Growth Markets, NASDAQ |
Size class | Medium |
This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.
2-May-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Cresud
RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VALUE | ||||||||
VALUE | 4 |
|
45 |
|
29 |
|
45 |
|
GROWTH | ||||||||
GROWTH | 29 |
|
7 |
|
11 |
|
14 |
|
SAFETY | ||||||||
SAFETY | 32 |
|
11 |
|
15 |
|
16 |
|
SENTIMENT | ||||||||
SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
7 |
|
39 |
|
new | |
360° VIEW | ||||||||
360° VIEW | n/a |
|
1 |
|
3 |
|
new |
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with investment alternatives), Cresud (Agricultural Products, Argentina) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Cresud are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 45 (worse than 55% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 14), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 16), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on Cresud's financial characteristics. As the company Cresud's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 45), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 14), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 16), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VALUE | ||||||||
VALUE | 4 |
|
45 |
|
29 |
|
45 |
|
GROWTH | ||||||||
GROWTH | 29 |
|
7 |
|
11 |
|
14 |
|
SAFETY | ||||||||
SAFETY | 32 |
|
11 |
|
15 |
|
16 |
|
COMBINED | ||||||||
COMBINED | 5 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
6 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 45 (worse than 55% compared with alternatives), Cresud shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Cresud. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 82 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 82% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Cresud's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 62, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 62% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than for 70% of alternatives (only 30% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than for 99% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 45, is a hold recommendation based on Cresud's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high concerning expected revenues, the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting Group or BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than distribute it to shareholders through dividends, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 80 |
|
70 |
|
18 |
|
30 |
|
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 4 |
|
87 |
|
83 |
|
82 |
|
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 29 |
|
62 |
|
44 |
|
62 |
|
DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 4 |
|
45 |
|
29 |
|
45 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 14 (better than 14% compared with alternatives), Cresud shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Cresud. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 1, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 99% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 1, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 16. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 84% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 100, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 100% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 14, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Cresud, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more
GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
REVENUE GROWTH | 2 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
PROFIT GROWTH | 42 |
|
1 |
|
9 |
|
16 |
|
CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
9 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
STOCK RETURNS | 82 |
|
79 |
|
100 |
|
100 |
|
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 29 |
|
7 |
|
11 |
|
14 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 16 (better than 16% compared with alternatives), the company Cresud has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Cresud is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Cresud and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 60, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 60% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 35, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 65% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 15, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 85% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 16 (worse than 84% compared with alternatives), Cresud has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for Cresud are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Cresud and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LEVERAGE | ||||||||
LEVERAGE | 8 |
|
16 |
|
38 |
|
35 |
|
REFINANCING | ||||||||
REFINANCING | 96 |
|
61 |
|
55 |
|
60 |
|
LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
LIQUIDITY | 5 |
|
1 |
|
6 |
|
15 |
|
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 32 |
|
11 |
|
15 |
|
16 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
20 |
|
20 |
|
new | |
OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
n/a |
|
n/a |
|
new | |
PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
51 |
|
70 |
|
new | |
MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
7 |
|
12 |
|
new | |
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
7 |
|
39 |
|
new |
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Cresud from May 2, 2024.
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