Fact based stock research
Dillard's (NYSE:DDS)

US2540671011

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Dillard's stock research in summary

dillards.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 64 (better than 64% compared with investment alternatives), Dillard's (Department Stores, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Dillard's are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 31) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 90), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 64, is a buy recommendation based on Dillard's's financial characteristics. As the company Dillard's's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 49) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 31), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 90) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	49
Growth Rank	31
Safety Rank	90
Combined Rank	64

Country	USA
Industry	Department Stores
Index
Size class	X-Large

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Dillard's

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	58	67	52	49
GROWTH
GROWTH	94	79	53	31
SAFETY
SAFETY	90	51	79	90
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	73	28	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	91	53	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 3-Aug-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Dillard's is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	58	67	52	49
GROWTH
GROWTH	94	79	53	31
SAFETY
SAFETY	90	51	79	90
COMBINED
COMBINED	93	73	78	64

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Dillard's the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with alternatives), Dillard's shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Dillard's. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 51 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 51% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Dillard's's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 40, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 40% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 61% of alternatives (only 39% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 39% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation based on Dillard's's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	48	46	33	39
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	81	46	66	51
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	31	60	40	40
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	47	55	58	61
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	58	67	52	49

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Dillard's; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 31 (better than 31% compared with alternatives), Dillard's shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Dillard's. Capital Growth has a rank of 72, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 12% of its competitors. Investors welcomed this, visible in the Stock Returns rank of 69 (above 69% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has only a rank of 14, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 86% of its competitors, and Profit Growth is also low at a rank of 12. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 31, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is an ambiguous picture. Revenue growth and capital growth are strong, but the growth in profit, which seems good, can also be an indication that growth momentum may be negative. The fact that stock returns have been above average doesn't help much, as stock returns are less reliable in showing a company’s future growth potential. Prices may perform well for the simple reason that investors were too pessimistic in the past and are now correcting their opinions and moving the stock price to a more reasonable level. As the growth picture is mixed for Dillard's, investors may want to look at value and sentiment indicators for a well-rounded picture of this stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	68	5	4	14
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	11	94	43	12
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	55	67	72
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	100	99	83	69
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	94	79	53	31

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Dillard's.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 90 (better than 90% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Dillard's has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Dillard's is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Dillard's. Leverage is at 60, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 60% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 77, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 77% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 76, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 76% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 90 (better than 90% compared with alternatives), Dillard's has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. Investors may not have a debt issue with Dillard's but they should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	69	62	61	60
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	67	69	73	77
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	87	17	69	76
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	90	51	79	90

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Dillard's and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	2	1	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	87	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	99	80	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	48	27	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	73	28	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Dillard's.
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