Fact based stock research
Essent Group (NYSE:ESNT)

BMG3198U1027

How to read the free ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Essent Group stock research in summary

essentgroup.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with investment alternatives), Essent Group (Thrifts & Mortgage Finance, Bermuda) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Essent Group are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 7), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 43), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation based on Essent Group's financial characteristics. As the company Essent Group's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 37), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 7), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 43), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	37
Growth Rank	7
Safety Rank	43
Combined Rank	1

Country	Bermuda
Industry	Thrifts & Mortgage Finance
Index	Independent Boards Growth Markets, S&P MIDCAP
Size class	Large

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Essent Group

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	41	45	33	37
GROWTH
GROWTH	51	63	61	7
SAFETY
SAFETY	62	67	56	43
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	9	79	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	47	77	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Essent Group is in the corresponding investment strategy.
Upgrade to a Premium Account to access the latest ranks.

Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	41	45	33	37
GROWTH
GROWTH	51	63	61	7
SAFETY
SAFETY	62	67	56	43
COMBINED
COMBINED	55	72	54	1

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Essent Group the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% compared with alternatives), Essent Group shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Essent Group. Price-to-Sales is 12 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 88% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Essent Group's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 43, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Essent Group. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 47 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 56% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 37, is a hold recommendation based on Essent Group's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Essent Group? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Essent Group? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Essent Group may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	5	12	12	12
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	80	55	42	47
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	41	45	42	43
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	38	44	41	44
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	41	45	33	37

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Essent Group; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 7 (better than 7% compared with alternatives), Essent Group shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for Essent Group. Sales Growth has a rank of 15, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 85% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 21, and Capital Growth with 45. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 43, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 57% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 7, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	36	6	60	15
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	100	73	10	21
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	81	71	45
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	29	53	79	43
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	51	63	61	7

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Essent Group.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 43 (better than 43% compared with alternatives), the company Essent Group has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Essent Group is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Essent Group. Leverage is at a rank of 61, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 61% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 96, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 96% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 5, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 95% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 43 (worse than 57% compared with alternatives), Essent Group has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Essent Group. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Essent Group and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	63	56	61	61
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	33	23	7	5
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	75	96	94	96
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	62	67	56	43

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Essent Group and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	92	79	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	22	78	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	8	70	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	1	16	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	9	79	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Essent Group.
Upgrade to a Premium Account to access the latest ranks.