Fact based stock research
Estee Lauder (NYSE:EL)

US5184391044

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Estee Lauder stock research in summary

elcompanies.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 4 (worse than 96% compared with investment alternatives), Estee Lauder (Personal Products, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Estee Lauder are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 44 (worse than 56% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 7), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 18), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 4, is a sell recommendation based on Estee Lauder's financial characteristics. As the company Estee Lauder's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 44), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 7), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 18), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	44
Growth Rank	7
Safety Rank	18
Combined Rank	4

Country	USA
Industry	Personal Products
Index	Dividends USA, Diversity USA, Recycling, S&P US Consumer, S&P 500
Size class	XX-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Estee Lauder

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	1	33	21	44
GROWTH
GROWTH	86	61	27	7
SAFETY
SAFETY	50	48	34	18
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	41	21	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	35	4	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Estee Lauder is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	1	33	21	44
GROWTH
GROWTH	86	61	27	7
SAFETY
SAFETY	50	48	34	18
COMBINED
COMBINED	50	34	4	4

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Estee Lauder the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 44 (worse than 56% compared with alternatives), Estee Lauder shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for Estee Lauder. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 54, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 54% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Estee Lauder's revenue size. The same is valid for dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 76, which means that dividends are expected to be higher than for 76% of comparable investments. On the other hand, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than for 88% of alternatives (only 12% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for the Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E) ratio, which is higher than for 81% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 44, is a hold recommendation based on Estee Lauder's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a somewhat surprising picture, because it means that profits are low while dividends are high. One interpretation could be that profits are expected to increase, justifying the high dividend payments. But it could also mean that the company desperately keeps the high dividends to avoid a collapsing share price. This would be a rather dangerous constellation. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	1	27	34	54
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	43	27	8	19
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	9	9	7	12
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	25	75	84	76
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	1	33	21	44

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Estee Lauder; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 7 (better than 7% compared with alternatives), Estee Lauder shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Estee Lauder. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 51, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 7% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 38 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 62% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 7 and Stock Returns with a rank of 13 are also low (below 87% of alternative investments). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 7, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for Estee Lauder is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	88	47	72	38
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	33	51	26	7
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	35	43	51
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	64	89	23	13
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	86	61	27	7

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Estee Lauder.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 18 (better than 18% compared with alternatives), the company Estee Lauder has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Estee Lauder is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Estee Lauder. Liquidity is at 63, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 63% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 27, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 73% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 16, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 84% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 18 (worse than 82% compared with alternatives), Estee Lauder has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	55	29	23	16
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	45	25	33	27
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	57	77	60	63
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	50	48	34	18

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Estee Lauder and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	42	29	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	69	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	72	22	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	14	42	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	41	21	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Estee Lauder.
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