Fact based stock research
Etsy (NasdaqGS:ETSY)
US29786A1060
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Etsy stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 37 (worse than 63% compared with investment alternatives), Etsy (Internet Retail, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Etsy are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 57 (better than 57% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 65, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 16). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 37, is a hold recommendation based on Etsy's financial characteristics. As the company Etsy's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 57) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 16) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 65), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 57% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Internet Retail |
| Index | Employee Focus US, Diversity USA, NASDAQ, S&P US Luxury, S&P 500 |
| Size class | Large |
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Etsy
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 9 |
|
9 |
|
12 |
|
57 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 100 |
|
39 |
|
51 |
|
16 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 9 |
|
54 |
|
58 |
|
65 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
93 |
|
77 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
53 |
|
48 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 37 (worse than 63% compared with investment alternatives), Etsy (Internet Retail, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Etsy are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 57 (better than 57% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 65, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 16). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 37, is a hold recommendation based on Etsy's financial characteristics. As the company Etsy's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 57) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 16) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 65), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 57% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 9 |
|
9 |
|
12 |
|
57 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 100 |
|
39 |
|
51 |
|
16 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 9 |
|
54 |
|
58 |
|
65 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 25 |
|
12 |
|
19 |
|
37 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with alternatives), Etsy shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Etsy. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 58 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 58% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Etsy's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 97, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 97% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than for 53% of alternatives (only 47% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than for 99% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 57, is a buy recommendation based on Etsy's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high concerning expected revenues, the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting Group or BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than distribute it to shareholders through dividends, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 16 |
|
25 |
|
34 |
|
47 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 52 |
|
41 |
|
46 |
|
58 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 2 |
|
6 |
|
1 |
|
97 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 9 |
|
9 |
|
12 |
|
57 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 16 (better than 16% compared with alternatives), Etsy shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Etsy. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 71, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 25% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 14 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 86% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 25 and Stock Returns with a rank of 25 are also low (below 75% of alternative investments). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 16, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for Etsy is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 81 |
|
41 |
|
22 |
|
14 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 28 |
|
56 |
|
89 |
|
25 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
17 |
|
78 |
|
71 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 80 |
|
49 |
|
13 |
|
25 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 100 |
|
39 |
|
51 |
|
16 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 65 (better than 65% compared with alternatives), the company Etsy has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Etsy is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above-average for Etsy. Refinancing is at 70, meaning the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 70% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at 87, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 87% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. However, Leverage is rather large at 5, which means the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 95% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 65 (better than 65% compared with alternatives), Etsy has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. This is not bad if things go well. The higher debt level means better returns to shareholders if things go well. Many top-performing companies operate with higher debt levels, and Etsy could be in that group. But if you expect the environment to turn rougher, the higher leverage could become a problem. The same is valid if you expect interest rates to rise. That could squeeze shareholder returns, which so far have benefitted from better conditions. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Etsy and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 20 |
|
18 |
|
4 |
|
5 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 42 |
|
35 |
|
49 |
|
70 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 39 |
|
86 |
|
92 |
|
87 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 9 |
|
54 |
|
58 |
|
65 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
54 |
|
25 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
79 |
|
64 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
79 |
|
98 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
74 |
|
57 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
93 |
|
77 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Etsy from November 14, 2024.
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