Fact based stock research
Fair Isaac (NYSE:FICO)
US3032501047
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Fair Isaac stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 15 (worse than 85% compared with investment alternatives), Fair Isaac (Application Software, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Fair Isaac are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 43 (worse than 57% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 20, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 50). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 15, is a sell recommendation based on Fair Isaac's financial characteristics. As the company Fair Isaac shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 43 (57% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 50% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 50). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 20 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Fair Isaac, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Application Software |
| Index | S&P MIDCAP |
| Size class | Large |
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Fair Isaac
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 70 |
|
35 |
|
46 |
|
43 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 39 |
|
55 |
|
60 |
|
50 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 3 |
|
17 |
|
34 |
|
20 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
51 |
|
80 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
25 |
|
72 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 15 (worse than 85% compared with investment alternatives), Fair Isaac (Application Software, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Fair Isaac are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 43 (worse than 57% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 20, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 50). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 15, is a sell recommendation based on Fair Isaac's financial characteristics. As the company Fair Isaac shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 43 (57% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 50% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 50). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 20 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Fair Isaac, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 70 |
|
35 |
|
46 |
|
43 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 39 |
|
55 |
|
60 |
|
50 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 3 |
|
17 |
|
34 |
|
20 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 21 |
|
15 |
|
43 |
|
15 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 43 (worse than 57% compared with alternatives), Fair Isaac shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators where three out of four are below average for Fair Isaac. Only the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) indicates good stock value with a Price-to-Book Rank of 100, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 100% of comparable investments. All other value indicators are below the market median. Price-to-Sales is 3 which means the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 97% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Fair Isaac's revenue levels. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 100 and for the dividend yields rank which is lower than for 99% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 43, is a hold recommendation based on Fair Isaac's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Why are market participants paying such a high price for Fair Isaac, where three out of four value indicators are below par? One reason could be that the company is well financed, indicated by the high book capital level, and has a promising future that is not yet visible in reported revenues and profits. That would also explain the low dividend yield because the company needs the cash to invest in its future. If investors can verify a picture in this sense, the stock may still be a good investment, even though current company-reported financials don't fully explain current stock prices. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 39 |
|
40 |
|
1 |
|
3 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 77 |
|
64 |
|
38 |
|
16 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 98 |
|
13 |
|
100 |
|
100 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 70 |
|
35 |
|
46 |
|
43 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 50 (better than 50% compared with alternatives), Fair Isaac shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Fair Isaac. Profit Growth has a rank of 60, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 60% of its competitors. This is a good sign for shareholders, which is confirmed by an above-average Stock Returns rank of 97 (above 97% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has a below the median rank of 34, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 66% of its competitors, and Capital Growth also has a lower rank of 21. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 50, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Because revenues and invested capital are the more solid growth indicators, the positive development on the profit side is less relevant. It may have been caused by cost-cutting, which may be a negative growth indicator. Finally, the above-average stock returns recently are a thing of the past and not a good indicator of future returns. Investors should be confident that the cost-cutting initiative leading to higher profits is to benefit the company's future. If not, there is little growth momentum, and investment is only advisable if the Value Ranks suggest a good investment timing for Fair Isaac. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 6 |
|
17 |
|
56 |
|
34 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 54 |
|
41 |
|
39 |
|
60 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
98 |
|
44 |
|
21 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 47 |
|
57 |
|
93 |
|
97 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 39 |
|
55 |
|
60 |
|
50 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 20 (better than 20% compared with alternatives), the company Fair Isaac has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Fair Isaac is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Fair Isaac. Liquidity is at 67, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 67% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 28, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 72% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 3, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 97% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 20 (worse than 80% compared with alternatives), Fair Isaac has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 12 |
|
3 |
|
1 |
|
3 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 55 |
|
17 |
|
33 |
|
28 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 29 |
|
78 |
|
74 |
|
67 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 3 |
|
17 |
|
34 |
|
20 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
44 |
|
34 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
30 |
|
60 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
33 |
|
92 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
92 |
|
63 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
51 |
|
80 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Fair Isaac from November 14, 2024.
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