Fact based stock research
First National (NasdaqCM:FXNC)

US32106V1070

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

First National stock research in summary

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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 41 (worse than 59% compared with investment alternatives), First National (Regional Banks, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of First National are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 83 (better than 83% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 33), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 17), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation based on First National's financial characteristics. As the company First National's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 83) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 33) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 17), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 83% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	83
Growth Rank	33
Safety Rank	17
Combined Rank	41

Country	USA
Industry	Regional Banks
Index	NASDAQ
Size class	XX-Large

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: First National

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	60	61	55	83
GROWTH
GROWTH	50	59	97	33
SAFETY
SAFETY	50	43	49	17
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	91	29	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	85	63	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better First National is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	60	61	55	83
GROWTH
GROWTH	50	59	97	33
SAFETY
SAFETY	50	43	49	17
COMBINED
COMBINED	42	51	89	41

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of First National the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 83 (better than 83% compared with alternatives) for 2024, First National shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for First National. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 91, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 91% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning First National's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 89% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 51 (dividends are expected to be higher than 51% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 54% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for First National to 46. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 83, is a buy recommendation based on First National's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner in assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the three good value ranks for Sales, Profits, and Dividends are reliable indicators for the stock price value. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	65	56	54	91
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	45	70	49	89
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	65	48	46	46
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	35	63	41	51
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	60	61	55	83

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of First National; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 33 (better than 33% compared with alternatives), First National shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below-average for First National. While Sales Growth ranks at 98, professionals currently expect the company to grow more than 98% of its competitors, while all other growth ranks are below the market median. Profit Growth has a rank of 16, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 84% of its competitors, and Capital Growth has a low rank of 47. Historic stock returns were also below average with a current Stock Returns rank of 7 which means that the stock returns have recently been below 93% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 33, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. If revenues are expected to increase, but all other growth indicators are negative, the company may be investing in future growth through means not visible in the balance sheet and thus not reflected in capital growth. The fact that Stock Returns have been below market doesn't mean that much, as it may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior in the past, which has been corrected to a more reasonable level recently. If that were the case, a positive Value Rank would be a reason to invest because the company is still expected to grow, while stock prices are now at a more reasonable level. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance isn't stellar here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	67	31	91	98
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	49	93	16
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	69	39	47
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	37	61	89	7
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	50	59	97	33

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of First National.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 17 (better than 17% compared with alternatives), the company First National has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of First National is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for First National. Liquidity is at 47, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 53% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 18, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 82% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 34 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 66% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 17 (worse than 83% compared with alternatives), First National has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of First National because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	84	58	74	18
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	39	27	10	34
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	18	55	63	47
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	50	43	49	17

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of First National and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	100	31	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	81	31	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	76	60	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	91	29	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for First National.
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