Fact based stock research
First Watch (NasdaqGS:FWRG)

US33748L1017

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

First Watch stock research in summary

investors.firstwatch.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with investment alternatives), First Watch (Restaurants, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of First Watch are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 9 (worse than 91% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 41) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 96), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation based on First Watch's financial characteristics. As the company First Watch's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 9) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 41), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 96) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	9
Growth Rank	41
Safety Rank	96
Combined Rank	49

Country	USA
Industry	Restaurants
Index	NASDAQ
Size class	Large

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: First Watch

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	n/a	25	12	9
GROWTH
GROWTH	n/a	41	100	41
SAFETY
SAFETY	n/a	50	85	96
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	94	98	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	52	98	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 29-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better First Watch is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	n/a	25	12	9
GROWTH
GROWTH	n/a	41	100	41
SAFETY
SAFETY	n/a	50	85	96
COMBINED
COMBINED	n/a	31	89	49

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of First Watch the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 9 (worse than 91% compared with alternatives), First Watch shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for First Watch. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 50, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 50% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning First Watch's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio), which is more favorable than for 50% of alternatives (50% of peers have a higher ratio). But expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 are lower than average (dividends are expected to be lower than 99% of other stocks) while the Price to Profit ratio (or Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio) is higher than average with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 8, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 9, is a sell recommendation based on First Watch's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Low profits and low dividends as seen here for First Watch may indicate a restructuring phase. This could be transitory, making the company a good value when profits recover and dividends return to higher levels. If the stock price is compared with the size indicators for revenue and invested capital, it is on the lower side, making this stock a good value investment (apart from current profit and dividend expectations). We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	n/a	50	51	50
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	n/a	31	17	8
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	n/a	52	49	50
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	n/a	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	n/a	25	12	9

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of First Watch; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 41 (better than 41% compared with alternatives), First Watch shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for First Watch. Sales Growth has a rank of 94 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 94% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 51. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 22, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 78% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 26, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 51% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	n/a	57	86	94
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	69	96	26
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	64	91	22
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	n/a	11	83	51
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	n/a	41	100	41

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of First Watch.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 96 (better than 96% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company First Watch has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of First Watch is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for First Watch. Leverage is at a rank of 88, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 88% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 86, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 86% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 37, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 63% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 96 (better than 96% compared with alternatives), First Watch has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for First Watch. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with First Watch and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	n/a	80	86	88
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	n/a	27	44	37
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	n/a	36	70	86
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	n/a	50	85	96

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of First Watch and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	77	97	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	35	67	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	72	26	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	96	87	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	94	98	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for First Watch.
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